UNSETTLED, BUT MILD PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM


HIGHLIGHTS:

1 Previous overview on track through Thursday.

2. Friday starts to get unsettled and damp, but the milder air works in as well. Risk of a few light showers north of NYC Friday, then spreading east by Friday night.

3. Periods of rainfall for the weekend, especially late Saturday, Sunday night, then again Monday afternoon/night with a strong cold front. Very mild. Could even see a stray thunderstorm Monday with highs in the upper 50s and a strong front nearby. Cooler day Sunday, with temps in the upper 40s.

4. Tuesday through Thursday: Much colder, but things clear out. Temps essentially around normal December levels.

INTELLICAST TEMPS SHOW THE COOL-DOWN

DISCUSSION: After a brief punch of cold from Wednesday night (tonight) through Thursday night, temps will start to climb once again. However, the renewed surge of mild air will come with a price; periods of rainfall will ensue from late Friday through much of Monday night, before another burst of cold weather lunges in for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The situation is reminiscent of the opening of last December, and for that matter, much of winter 2011-2012  (short, sharp shots of cold in a sea of warmth).

But don't let it fool you into a false sense of security (yet).

Going into December, the consensus for this month was that cold air would decidedly win out by the tenth; now, indications are that seasonal temps will begin to only gradually infiltrate by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week (around the 12th).

 Moreover, while an uptick in rainfall seems likely, the overall pattern is not conducive to significant wintry precip through the 13th. But the overall message put forth here (obviously with help from the pros), even though delayed by about five to six days, still holds sway; increasingly cold, stormy weather should take hold and the threat of a harsh period of winter weather right around the heart of the holiday season is something to keep in mind as we go forward.

NEXT WEEK'S STORM COULD GET THE (SNOW) BALL ROLLING ON WINTER

The record books will be filled up today, as spring-like warmed encased much of the lower 48 states. Chicago and DC had temps in the low 70s, and here in nyc, we managed to touch 60. Another day of near-record warmth is on the way tomorrow, before the expected turnaround comes in Wednesday morning. 

The Weather Channel

Temps will start falling off rapidly by Wednesday afternoon; I'd be tempted to just bring the heavy jacket for work Wednesday, as our high for the day may very well be realized before noon. 

Next week's storm will come through the area Sunday or Monday. While it will most certainly bring rain to the area, the storm itself may be the trigger that can start a more persistent cold/stormy regime around the country. We were looking for the change to take place around the 6th, but this may be delayed for a few days longer, more like the 10th. 

More tomorrow. 

DECEMBER OPENS UP AS WARM AS ADVERTISED

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

 

1. Spotty light rain Friday night towards the coast/NYC, with some light freezing rain/snow in Orange/Rockland/Putnam counties and adjacent counties in NJ/CT. Watch for icy roads late Friday night in these areas. Temps in the 30s everywhere Friday night.

 

2. Periods of light rain/drizzle will persist into Saturday and Saturday night before a break ensues Sunday during the day. Warm air makes inroads in the northern counties early Saturday, so that frozen/ice threat is shut off early. Temps rise throughout the weekend (persistent cloud cover notwithstanding). Readings will climb even at night; temps will gradually move into the 50s Sunday.

NOAA RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

 

3. A period of some heavier showers Sunday night. Break for Monday and much of Tuesday, with very mild temps close to 60! Plenty of clouds though; some partial breaks of sun

INTELLICAST TEMPS:

ACCUWEATHER OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS WARMTH DOMINATING THE LOWER 48 STATES

 

4. Sharp turn to colder temps (average temps) Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, as front comes through with showers. Blustery Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with highs in the 40s.

 

5. Signs in the long term still lean towards a turn to a more persistent cold, stormy pattern by mid-month. Previous posts, video and links handle this.

 

MORE ON MID WEEK STORM AND A VIDEO ON DECEMBER PROSPECTS

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

MID WEEK STORM: The old map is similar for NYC and points eastward, but the snow amounts were adjusted to lesser values north and west of NYC. The timing looks like Tuesday morning, with another shot of light to moderate precip Tuesday afternoon and night. Overall, less than a half of an inch of liquid will accompany this storm, thus making the impact low to commuting and everyday plans.

Old MAP

UPDATED NEW MAP

NOAA and Accuweather have basically the same idea accumulation-wise.

Accuweather - LEFT......NOAA-RIGHT

The next chance of precip (rain) will be sometime Saturday night into Sunday.

LATE THIS WEEK/NEXT WEEK: The theme of a back-and-forth, roller coaster winter will be showing itself in full force the next two weeks. After a very chilly start to the work week and the mid week storm, a big warming trend will commence as we open December. A stretch of very mild weather  
should encompass much of the lower-48 states through at least 12/5.

NOAA's Long Range temp outlook is quite bullish on the warm idea for Saturday through Wednesday of next week:

INTELLICAST TEMPS FOR NYC NEXT SEVEN DAYS show the trend nicely:

Thereafter, the overall pattern will reconfigure itself yet again; this transition should allow for a substantial period of wintry weather, which could last 10-15 days, leading us right into the heart of the holiday season.


VIDEO: December Looking Cold, Stormy:

The video shows what it takes in the overall pattern to make it cold and snowy in the northeast states. A comparison of last December versus the (likely) pattern going into this December (especially after the 5th):

WINTER STORM LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWEST BURBS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

The last time NYC saw two accumulating snows in November occurred in 1938. The November monthly snowfall record is 19.0", which was established in 1898.  

AREA IN GREEN ON MAP IS MIXED PRECIP/MOSTLY RAIN. 
SOURCES ARE WEATHERBELL, ACCUWEATHER, AND WEATHER.GOV/OKX

The track of the storm, plus the warm temps aloft which are forecasted by most of the models, seems to suggest that NYC and the coast are going to see a rain/snow mix, with perhaps a light accumulation. However, as we learned from the November 6th storm, a shift south could put the city in play for more snow. 

Tomorrow, we'll discuss what makes a cold, snowy pattern around these parts (in a large scale sense) and there will be an update on the mid week storm

more later. 

TWO SHOTS OF WINTRY CHILL NEXT TEN DAYS

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: medium

1. Previous post makes the case that winter is already underway in our area. 

 

2. Rainfall chances were a bit overdone here, as storm remained even further off shore this week. Risk of some coastal flooding, albeit minor, remains on the Jersey coast this week through Thursday. Vulnerable beaches left in Sandy’s wake make even minor events more magnified (this will be a theme through winter).

ACCUWEATHER FLIGHT DELAY MAP:

 

3. Mainly quiet through Friday, but a robust cold shot  arrives early Saturday through Saturday night. Coldest weather of the fall season arrives Saturday night, with some light frozen precip possible inland during the day Saturday (probably morning). Very windy and cold Saturday night, with wind-chills in the teens and actual lows in the 20s to near 30.

 

4. Highs struggle to climb into the 40s Sunday, even in the warmer spots! A blustery day for Sunday. 

NOAA DEPICTION OF TEMPS SAT-SUN LOOK OVERDONE

INTELLICAST TEMPS SAT-SUN

5. Monday-Tuesday, temps rebound closer to 50. Fair and tranquil, but then another shot of windy cold weather for the last weekend of November looking likely; storm will be accompanied by rain around the 29th/30th. 

 

6. Video this coming Sunday or Monday will look at last December (2011) versus depiction of long range models for this December (2012). Evidence mounting that a fast start to winter will continue, with uptick in storminess likely for much of the holiday season.

WINTER HAS ALREADY BEGUN...

Since November 1st, we have had three recorded days in Central Park where the average daily temperature has reached positive territory. The cold has won in a rout; the monthly average temp in the Park will, in all likelihood, end up being the coldest month we've seen in these parts since December 2010 (against the monthly averages).

The long term picture is shaping up to be the exact opposite of last December. Prospects for a fast start to winter have not only shown themselves already, but overall, are lining up so that December looks cold and stormy for the east.

Last year, i was only at the point where i did emails. The blog was not created yet. but for the loyal viewers out there, i noted that December 2011 would, in fact, be tame. Now, it appears that we're headed to a big time reversal.

more later.