The latest track guidance from the various models continues to tout the idea that this storm, while still in its embryonic stages, will head for the gulf, NOT FLORIDA, in the next few days.
The ocean heat content of the Gulf is ripe for storm intensification...
All of the evidence, including the fact that the storm will be in an environment suitable for strengthening, leads me to the conclusion that a significant, perhaps destructive storm, may be in the making for the Gulf Coast come early next week. My educated guess this past Tuesday was based on twofold; the euro model's insistence on a westward path and the idea that storms don't often scrape the western coast of Florida, as was depicted in the majority of forecasts. This is not to disparage any one particular forecast or group of forecasters, because after all, this blog is about PROMOTING THE IDEA THAT STORMS AND WEATHER ARE MORE PREDICTABLE THAN EVER BEFORE AND NOT ENOUGH CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE REAL SCIENTISTS WHO PURSUE IT, NOT HOBBYISTS LIKE MYSELF.
here was the graphic i put together using Weather.com's graphic back on Tuesday.
No matter what happens, i applaud the forecasters from all circles on this one, especially the people in
the plane flying into the storm, who are tweeting from the action. I am in awe of that still.
Good luck, and godspeed to the residence in the path of Isaac, both now, and over the weekend.
