PUNISHING WINTER WILL RELINQUISH SOMEWHAT MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK

1. General ideas on yesterday's storm was very good, but the last part after the lull surprised many, with thunder, lightning and tons of rain before a change back to snow overnight Friday morning (today).

2. Snow will spread into the region between 7am and 9am and continue through the day. The snow should end by around dark Saturday evening. Heavy snowstorm likely for the twin forks of Long Island. Near blizzard conditions possible for the twin forks tomorrow night.

Joe Bastardi: Weatherbell Analytics

3. Winds will pick up everywhere tomorrow night, but snow will be confined to eastern most areas after dark -- well east of NYC and Nassau. Bitterly cold wind-chill values tomorrow night in the single digits likely, with strong winds and falling temps into the low 20s. Teens north and west. 

4. Continued cold for Sunday and Monday, with some passing flurries possible on Sunday. Winds will be diminishing Sunday night.

5. Good indication that Monday night and Tuesday will once again be snowy. Potential is high for a few inches of snow to fall during this time frame. A mix or change to rain at the end is likely at the coast and in the city, but further north and west, precip will mainly be snow. 

intellicast.com

6. Temps moderate for Wednesday through next weekend. We'll see a break from the consistently cold temps during this time. Rain may move through Thursday night; chance for wintry precip after Tuesday will be low through the 23rd. Becoming cold again by the week of the 25th. 

VIDEO: MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL COME IN THREE PHASES ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT

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MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A powerful and far-reaching winter storm will track towards our region, bringing with it yet another significant snowfall accumulation on Thursday. This storm will make travel very dangerous region-wide;  both the morning and the evening rush hours on Thursday will be severely impacted by this intense storm. The heavy nature of the snowfall will create some power outages because it will fall onto existing snow cover on trees and branches.

TIMING: Snow will develop between 2-4am Thursday morning and continue in ernest until midday or so before letting up somewhat during the day.

Accuweather.com

 The snow will come down very heavy at times during the morning commute, with hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour at times through about 11am.  Accumulations around midday area-wide should range from 4-6 inches. 

Image courtesy of NOAA

Then, after a brief respite, another round of moderate to heavy snow will break out and cross the region from west to east from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night before completely ending during the overnight Friday morning. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain may try to work in for a  brief time, especially near the southern and eastern shores during the afternoon on Thursday, before changing back to all snow for Thursday afternoon and night.

AMOUNTS: A widespread significant accumulation of snowfall is likely. Most areas will see a storm total of 6 inches or greater by the time the storm ends early Friday morning. Amounts will exceed a foot north and west of NYC in a widespread fashion. Some excessive totals of more than 12 inches are possible over the mid-Hudson Valley

WINDS: Winds will be highest along the coast. Wind speeds could ramp up to 30mph during Thursday afternoon. This wind speed would be short of “blizzard” criteria, but it could exacerbate the threat to power lines.

COASTAL FLOODING: There is a threat for minor coastal flooding along the south shore of Long Island as well as Western Long Island Sound.

Another update tomorrow night

Stay tuned

WINTER STORM SCENARIOS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

more coming later today or Tuesday...