SNOWFALL IDEA FOR MONDAY'S STORM...

the trend in the last 1-2 days has been for a more substantial snowfall across the region. And just as we've seen with other storms this year, a shift north will take people off guard on Monday. There is room for a further north track of the storm on Monday, which could put sections of the region in the 4-8 inch areas. For now though, the idea here is a conservative one and should serve as a good backdrop for this event.

February is shaping up to be a snow-lovers' delight around these parts...get ready.

Next Update Monday night on the Wednesday storm.

THREE IMPORTANT STORMS TO WATCH AS WE OPEN FEBRUARY.....

But first, the weekend system is trending further north now. Most of the area will miss out on the bulk of the precip for this Saturday night into Sunday. A plain light rain is now the most likely outcome early Sunday, with a quick shot of light rain in the afternoon. The rest of the weekend looks dry. Conditions at game time Sunday night look to be warmer than the last update.

Some light snow is possible on Monday. Areas to the south and east of NYC and Long island stand the best shot of an accumulation snowfall. In fact, areas that got more than 2 inches of snow this past Wednesday stand the best chance of seeing similar or locally higher amounts.

NOAA: 7am Monday surface map

Thereafter, two potent storm systems will need to be closely monitored over the next seven to ten days. The first system is likely to make its closest approach on Wednesday into Thursday. A significant winter storm is possible, with a variety of precipitation types involved. The brunt of the storm would occur Wednesday before clearing. A change to plain rain or a mixed bag of precip is likely to transpire at the coast and in NYC, as only a shallow dome of cold air will be in place ahead of the oncoming storm.

Intellicast.com

Thereafter, another system will emerge out of the Gulf of Mexico for late next week, and make its closest approach by next Saturday. This time, a more substantial cold air mass will be in place which will either deflect the storm to our south and east, or aid in the development of a major snowstorm for the region. The track of the storm will determine how much, if any, impact there is to the area.

NOAA: Thursday morning surface map 2/6/14

Stay tuned.

SUPERBOWL SUNDAY SPELLS SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS

1. Passing flurries from a coastal low for Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly near the coast. A light dusting to an inch would be the maximum impact.

 

2. Moderating temps towards the end of the week. Pattern will transition from frequent arctic shots of cold air to that of a more regular, mid-winter cold around here from late this week through the first full week of February

 

3. Said patterns of this type will often feature building warmth in the southeast states. Implication of a clash between stubborn cold air entrenched to the north and warmth building to the south would make for a stormy month, with overall above normal precipitation for February.

image provided by tropicaltidbits.com

 

4. Next shot at significant winter weather will come Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.  Developing low pressure could offer a shot at a wintry mix during this time.

Intellicast.com

 

5. Seasonably cold and dry for the historic Superbowl, with breezy conditions behind the departing storm. Next shot at a significant storm will come around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, as a parade of storms begins to traverse the lower-48 states.