warmth getting ready to reload...foggy week this week

Happy St Patrick's Day to one and all:

It will warm up today, but tomorrow will really start to crank the numbers, as a more western wind takes hold:

Accuweather sums it up really nicely with a story today.

The menacing story of the week will be the impressive nightly display of fog for the coastal locales. This may be one of the longest stretches of foggy weather on consecutive nights that i can remember happening in quite a while.

It may take a while to burn off in some communities, which could play serious havoc with the temps the closer to the coast you go this week...

more later.

SOCKED IN ON A SPRING DAY ...

Even La Guardia, a typical hotspot, couldn't beat the dominating ocean breeze today:

Temps were stuck in the 40s all day, before a late day spike into 50s territory. 

The visible satellite picture says it all...

Low clouds and an easterly flow have melted most of the 60 degree temps to Pennsylvania...

After showers tomorrow afternoon and night, the sun returns. But it'll take most of the weekend to get full sun for coastal locations, as the east winds hold on, albeit with no rain after tomorrow. 

See previous posts for ideas on temps

After that, another surge of record warmth is likely early next week and beyond, as models will not catch up to the reality of the temps next Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs are already showing near 70 for Tuesday-Thursday on the GFS, and this is probably underdone for most, if not all locations (due to an expected wind from the west, NOT from the ocean like today). 

GFS Tuesday from the Penn State EWALL Site. Minimums on the left, max temps on the right:

Wednesday:

 Thursday:

We'll watch and see if these temps (while still remarkable in their own right if they verify) are still too low when all is said and done...

NYC WILL MAKE A RUN AT MOST 70-DEGREE READINGS IN MARCH ...

check this site out

Link to my weather site for the NYC area

A good source for more weather and forecasts.

Here's an excerpt of his thoughts that i found at America Weather Forums.  It was found on pg 11 of the thread:

"Today was the 3rd consecutive 70+ degree day so far, and the 4th 70 degree day this month for some places with definitely more to come. I don't know too much about historical weather data but I would assume that this month based on the averages should be close to having the most 70+ degree days for March on record near NYC.

Tomorrow for most and Friday for some should be a break from the strong positive departures with temperatures much closer to average (50s in NYC, 40s near coast), maybe the models could be overdoing it just a little bit but the SE wind should prevent tomorrow from being a much warmer day than expected IMO. It shouldn't have an impact though on next week which easily looks to be the warmest, with support still there for the possibility of at least one 80 degree day for some."


Another blogger quickly pointed out that 7 days is the all time record for most days where NYC hit 70 degrees in March, which was set back in 1945.


Records were made to be broken...


more tomorrow. 

TOMORROW'S 2PM TEMPS ARE UGLY FOR LONG ISLAND!

For the city and especially points to the east, the next two days will be a whole lot more "normal" around these parts.

Here's NOAA's graphic for Tomorrow's 2pm Temps:

In the city, it's not too pretty. But Long Island looks like many places struggle even worse with a pronounced wind off the ocean finally leveling the playing field that warmth has dominated thus far this week. Lots of 40s in Suffolk, and not much better. Kind of like Boston today, where temps were raw and chilly.

Here's a graphic from Accuweather showing the temp disparity the next two days:

Now here's a look at New York City's hourly temps the next 24 hours the GFS model:

Notice mid 60s for tomorrow after a sluggish, cloudy start.

But then there's Islip's hourly grid:

It barely gets to 55, levels off in the afternoon, then back into the 40s at night.

Ouch.

AHHH SPRING!! (NYC STYLE)

This was from Upton's discussion from earlier tonight....Amazing temp differences:


".NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

BIG TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA AT 23Z WITH KFOK (WESTHHAMPTON BEACH) AT 48 AND KEWR (NEWARK) AT
73. THERE WAS ALSO A 19 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN KJFK AND
KEWR...A LINEAR DISTANCE OF ABOUT 21 MILES.

FOG WAS STILL HANGING IN ON THE EAST END AND INTO EXTREME SERN CT
AT 23Z. THE FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM W TO E. KEPT THE
POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDS TIL 6Z...CLOSE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT.


&&

"STORM OF THE CENTURY" ANNIVERSARY

THURSDAY-FRIDAY FORECAST FOLLY…BUT ANOTHER RUN AT RECORDS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK

1. Wednesday is dry and mild as advertised with temps once again reaching the mid 60s. 40s at night. Breezy during the day

2. Thursday and Friday, winds from off the ocean will reduce temps to upper 50s coast/lower 60s inland. Old temp forecasts will prove too high for this time frame, even going back to yesterday’s forecasts from most sources.

3. Best chance of rain still remains Friday. showers possible in the afternoon, otherwise cloudy.

Intellicast.com: 

4. Saturday-Sunday are dry, with highs in the 60s. Fewer clouds Sunday. Warming may reach a record-smashing crescendo next week, with a day or two reaching the low 80s in western sections/60s low 70s east and south of NYC. Best candidate days would be for Tuesday or Wednesday. 

SOURCE: Accuweather.com

FUN WITH A NEW (OLD) TOOL ...

From intellicast.com and the GFS model:

alright, so what does this graph tell us?

The temp (red) and dewpoint are at their closest overnight Monday/Tuesday, hence the rain idea...
both Monday and tuesday have a shot at 70; the MOS guidance is just short for both days but it's within reason with full sun being forecasted.
highest winds in the next two days stay below 20mph...

Let's see how this works out and if we can use it against even bigger forecast problems.

PRECIP CHANCES BASICALLY UNCHANGED HEADING INTO THIS WEEK

Just looked at NOAA's Area Forecast Discussion. They're pretty consistent for this week. The main area of rain the next 24-36 hours will fall overnight Monday/Tuesday, according to them (no change). The map off of Accuweather com show's the rainfall overnight tomorrow night as well..

For Friday's precip, they are favoring areas to the west of NYC as having the best chance.

They introduced a chance of showers for Saturday's parade, but this looks spurious as they were vague in the discussion. The point and click is no help either. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

The neighboring NWS Philly office is hinting at a possible frontal passage over the weekend which would offer a chance at showers. However, they are leaving out of the official forecast for now.

MODELS "ADJUSTING" TO THE REALITY OF THE MAJOR WARM SPELL...

Off the NAM model for this coming Tuesday the 13th:

The red areas are over NYC and much of New Jersey are mid 70s. But look at the disparity as you go eastbound into the coastal plain of Long Island and CT. Temps there drop off somewhat into the 60s, but still it's well above normal level temps, and it's only the beginning...

In an earlier post, our point and click example from Intellicast had highs near 70 for NYC for Tuesday, but in light of the latest data, it looks like they've adjusted upwards!!

Tuesday now shows 73! The warmest reporting stations such as Newark and La Guarida could easily surpass the mid 70s for high temps Tuesday at this rate.

For the weekend, even though temps "come down" to low to mid 60s, the rebound starts Sunday, and we're off to the races yet again.

We'll cover precip chances for this week and update later to see if forecasts for a mostly dry week are holding true.

80s IN MARCH? YES. 90S IN MARCH? NO (NOT YET)

The guys at Americawx are doing some great compiling of stats on 80-degree days in NYC in March, as well as the earliest 90-degree days on record in Central Park

Go to the last page (right now it's page 3 as of this writing) and check them out.