Friday, July 12, 2013

ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAT, THEN A LATE JULY RETREAT

A very complicated forecast setup this week ended in disaster, as rain did in fact plague much of Friday across the tri state area.

Conditions will improve though, leaving the majority of the weekend dry for most spots. A risk of a stray heavy shower will exist tomorrow, then attention will turn to increasing heat for much of next week.


Intellicast's temps put forth in no uncertain terms that, if right, it's the hottest stretch of weather we've had thus far.  Aiding us somewhat will be the appearance of some afternoon cumulus clouds, in combination with the "mixing out" of the higher humidity values; this should occur during the peak of the heating each day, and thus, keep the dangerous "heat index" values at bay. 




Storm chances will be low next week overall, especially for NYC and the coast. However, by Thursday, the overall pattern will allow higher chances for afternoon storms. This will continue into Friday as well.

Lurking on the horizon for the last week ten days of July is a renewed shot of cool air building in Northwest Canada.


The odds are high that once again, the heat of the summer of 2013 is transient.  Some long range experts feel that the cooler pattern overall will follow from 7/20 to perhaps through the first ten days of August.

More Later.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

DECREASING HEAT, BUT INCREASING STORM THREATS THIS WEEK

1. Repetitive pattern which has dominated the summer thus far will settle in again, making it easy to see temps lowering for high temps, but just as hard to pinpoint rain chances this week.  Buckling of the jet stream is once again responsible.

WPC: Jet stream through Monday

2. PRECIP: Most days are fair game for an afternoon thunderstorm for north and west of NYC. City and points east have their best chances Monday, Wednesday, Thursday night/Friday.  Heavier, more widespread rainfall looks like it would happen for a good part of Friday, as front stalls in our vicinity.  Saturday, the chances for rain diminish except for in the late afternoon; Sunday's the better bet, with even less chance for afternoon storms. 

3. TEMPS:  Cooling off each day, with bust potential for Friday if steady, widespread rains do develop. Windiest day will be Wednesday. 

WPC: Highs for Friday and Saturday:




Intellicast Temps


4. Tropics will turn active, with the Southeast US at risk for at least heavy rains late week in to next week.

Accuweather