LOCKING IN A FALL REGIME WITH A STORMY TUESDAY

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD-HIGH 

1. Spotty light rainfall arrives overnight tonight (Saturday morning), but will clear by 8-10am most spots. Trace amounts expected. Fall-like weekend this weekend, with breezy conditions Saturday. Few changes from previous overview on the weekend weather picture.

 

2. Gradually warming Sunday-Monday, with fair skies Sunday. Clouds will build in Monday, and air mass will become muggy in advance of Tuesday’s very potent storm.

3. Tuesday: Heavy rain at times, with thunderstorms possible throughout the day and early evening. Flooding likely in the most susceptible urban/main highways. Rainfall amounts could exceed two inches in many locations. Temps in the 70s. Humid and very windy on Tuesday. Some coastal flooding likely. Clearing late.

ACCU-weather slide

 

NOAA Hazardous weather outlook days 3-7

4. Wednesday-Thursday are fair, with cooler temps. Windy early Wednesday, before things settle for Wednesday night into Thursday.

 

5. Cool will be the rule in the long term, as a cold pocket aloft lingers over the nations mid-section, blocking any advance of warmer air from the south. This will increase the prospects of fall-like weather dominating, with few if any opportunities for long stretches of mild temps to take hold. Readings in the 90s are done for the year, and days with highs in the 80s will be few and far between going forward.

intellicast temps

GFS 7-DAY MEAN TEMP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED POOL OF COOL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.

THE CANARSIE AND BREEZY POINT TORNADOES

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/11291

STRETCH OF FAIR, LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO CONTINUE VIRTUALLY UNABATED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK

A broad area of high pressure and a pronounced absence of any storminess will continue right through much of next week. The only chances of light rain showers appear for Saturday night (late at night) and again late in the day or evening on Tuesday. Temps will average near normal, with a slight increase in humidity for the weekend before it backs off for Monday.

Since August 20th, Central Park has had less than two inches of total rainfall. And unless we start to see the appearance of coastal storms or an influence from the tropics, the month of September will finish much like August did with warmer-than-average temps and below normal precipitation.

In the long run, one of the benefits of such a pattern can be a spectacular color display in the high ground of the Northeast states

Accuweather Fall Foliage Map:

intellicast temps:

NOAA five-day precip shows a dearth of activity by and large through Sunday:

more later...