Saturday, November 22, 2014

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR DISRUPTIVE, PRE-THANKSGIVING STORM

First, there are no changes to the forecast rationale for Sunday and Monday. See previous posts.

Colder air moving in Tuesday will set the stage for our mid-week problem.

The models are slowly coming into line on a powerful, but fast moving storm for Wednesday into Wednesday night. This storm has the potential to deliver a heavy snowfall inland and a rain/snow mix along the coast.  The track is uncertain:

accuweather.com
A track closer to the coast would mean more snow inland and more rain along the coast. A track further out to sea would mean less snow and less overall impact, but it would make for more snow on the coast (warm air would not push in and change the precip to rain with an offshore track). 

the volume of travel done on Wednesday and the storm's impact on a wide swath could lead to very significant delays and cancellations

Snow  or a rain/snow mix would begin around mid-to-late morning and continue through the day before ending late Wednesday night. 

The exact effects on sensible weather will be ironed out over the next few days
and another update will be needed on Monday

stay tuned.