ANOTHER WEEKEND FORECAST DEBACLE IN THE MAKING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

The overly optimistic forecast from last weekend may be followed for a second straight week by another miserable turnabout in the forecast for the Memorial Day weekend. 

As low pressure departs Friday, another will follow in behind it from the south and then only slowly pull away for Saturday. As such, the potential is markedly increasing that the benign prognostications for this upcoming weekend may be left by the wayside.

Accuweather

 As noted before int the video, a steady, soaking rain and a few thunderstorms will develop Thursday evening and continue into much of Friday. Another round of rain should follow in behind this first batch of precipitation and last through much of the day Saturday before slowly abating. The potential now exists for another inch or two of rainfall from Friday through Saturday evening (not counting what falls Thursday through midnight with the showers and thunderstorms for the evening commute), with residual cloud cover and windy conditions lingering into Sunday as the main push of rainfall exits for Sunday.

With the onshore wind set to prevail through all of Sunday, temps will struggle into the mid 60s for much of the weekend, with the exception of Monday, where the overall weather picture looks to be its best. 

OLD INTELLICAST TEMPS:

NEW INTELLICAST TEMPS:

 

Temps may try to make a run at 80 Tuesday and Wednesday, before the next front arrives with a risk of a shower Wednesday afternoon and night. 

All in all, the stage is set for yet another weekend where forecasts changed dramatically just before the actual period in question.

 

More later

VIDEO: THURSDAY'S SOAKING STORMS, THEN A MEMORIAL DAY GEM!

Watch NOW

MID-MAY WILL TURN ACTIVE, WITH WET CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION

This weekend's forecast was way too optimistic from just about all sources. And that's putting it lightly.

 The next ten days starting today will be characterized by a lot of bouts with wet weather, including thunderstorms.  The exception will be days where it's completely dry; we're likely to see a brief respite  Wednesday and much of the weekend, but every other day is dicey.

The prospects for storms will oscillate as we head through the course of the work week.  this is due to the fact that a front will be bouncing around our neck of the woods for days. So while at first, the front ushers in progressively very muggy conditions by Monday-Wednesday, it turns cool for the balance of Wednesday, before getting muggy again by Thursday!

Humid air masses and nearby fronts will lead to frequent spells of primarily afternoon and early evening rainfalls this week, which should easily average several inches for most locations.

WPC 5-day rainfall totals

Severe thunderstorms may occur thursday. The ingredients are there for unusually intense storms (more to follow later).

DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:

TODAY; Periods of showers, ending after midnight.

MONDAY: Some clearing, but slow-moving thunderstorms will threaten the region in the late afternoon. Heavy downpours a good bet with any one storm. Storms clear the region by late evening, but fog will develop late.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best chance for storms will be north and west of NYC in the afternoon, with lesser chances towards the city and  coast.

THURSDAY: Best chance for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move from west to east in the evening.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: Looking dry, but temps will be held to near 70, with 60s at the shoreline.

Intellicast

Intellicast

Intellicast

Overall, a low confidence scenario for the upcoming week, so updates will be needed.

Give credit to Mt Holly Weather Service and Climate Predictions Center for being the most out-front on this week's pattern .