EARLY SUMMER SOAKER WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: medium

1. Pattern is quiet until late afternoon/evening Tuesday (tomorrow), before heavy rain and thunderstorms develop and persist into early Wednesday. Rainfall should last 6-9 hours in any one location, and fall mostly in a  5pm-5am window. Some lingering numerous showers could persist through the morning commute, before rain quits for good Wednesday afternoon. Highs kept in check by clouds and rain through the period.

NOAA Rainfall amounts (Generally around an inch, with some isolated totals to two inches).

2. For the remainder of the week, broken cloudiness will persist, along with winds off the relatively cool ocean. While temps will remain somewhat cool,  the recent threat of daily doses of rain will be few if any through the weekend.

Intellicast Temps not all that toasty for June:

Intellicast cloud coverage:

3. Huge disparity between last year's hot start for nation as a whole, and this year. Threat of no recorded 90-degree days in NYC looking like a real possibility now as we head towards mid and late month.

                    JUNE 2011                                                             JUNE 2012

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle