STORMY PATTERN TO GROW BOLDER AND COLDER THROUGH THE END OF 2012

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

 

1. Main theme of Sunday/Monday storm still on track, but with even less emphasis on inland snow/frozen precip. Could start out frozen north and west of town, but it’s mainly periods of rain Sunday into early Monday. Temps start in the 30s, but rise into the 40s Sun-Mon.

NOAA HAS FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON SUNDAY IN AREAS IN PURPLE

 

2. A quick break, then another rainmaker arrives Monday night into Tuesday early afternoon. Temps in the 40s. Windy. Heavy rain likely Monday night/Tuesday morning, with potential of an inch of precip. 

 

3. Quiet Wednesday through Thursday, but then another storm in the pipeline develops and heads into the region. Snow/rain mix Thursday afternoon, giving way to rain Thursday night/early Friday. Coldest air of the winter season filters in behind Friday storm, with temps in the 30s. Very cold looking weekend ahead.

ACCUWEATHER SLIDE:

 

4. Threat of yet another storm around Christmas.  Potential for more snow/frozen precip everywhere, as more cold air can be tapped from up north. Bears close watch.

intellicast Temps:

 

5. Expect more of the same through the New Year: Increasingly colder, with frequent opportunities for storms with wintry precip. Above average precip likely. Above average snowfall likely through at least the first week of January and quite possibly a bit beyond. Pattern resembles a very active one, with storms and prospects for storms.

LATE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE WINTER’S OPENING SALVO!

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD NOW THROUGH SATURDAY-HIGH

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY: LOW

 

1. Overview on track through Thursday. Temps cool mid week, but rebound to near 50 Friday. Dry conditions through Saturday.

INTELLICAST TEMPS:

 

2. Weak front crosses Friday, but does bring a shot of cooler air for Saturday. Temps in the mid 40s Saturday, with increasing clouds late in the day

 

3. Potential winter storm Sunday into Monday. Heavy precip possible from intensifying coastal low. Wide spread in model guidance; very low confidence, but odds favor interior getting snow/mix, with rain at the coast if the storm comes close (NYC metro included in the rain category, for now).

 

4. Major period of stormy, cold weather for the holiday season looking likely nationwide. Strong blocking high pressure over Northeast Canada that was absent last year should combine with active storm track to produce above-average wintry precip through early January. Test will be to see if NYC gets over 6 inches of snow between 12/15-1/05/13 (if not, it’s a major bust considering how long this idea has been out there).