NOW THAT'S MORE LIKE IT

Old Intellicast forecast from Thursday for this coming Monday:

Now we look this morning and notice that the numbers are emphatically on the rise for this coming Monday. See the post from Thursday, as this was expected to happen.

IS THE UPCOMING HEAT A REPEAT OF APRIL, 1976? PROBABLY NOT

But it'll get darn warm Sunday through Tuesday. See previous posts. Incidentally, the point-and-click numbers from various sources are on the rise from 24 hours ago

Anyway, Accuweather did a beautiful slide today on the Easter Heat of April, 1976.

Meanwhile, here is a list compiled from NOAA on record highs for Monday, which I don't think will fall in most places. The only exception i could see to that rule will be Bridgeport, but time will tell

The weather will be making national headlines Sunday, as a vicious, destructive tornado outbreak gets underway over the plains states tomorrow afternoon into Sunday. This will likely dominate national headlines much of the day Sunday, with many major cities in the threat zone.

Storm Prediction Center with an extremely rare high risk area.

Accuweather's been all over it all week long, too.

MORE ON THE DROUGHT (AND WHETHER WE CAN KNOCK IT OUT)

First, a word about the point and clicks for Monday and Tuesday: They are going to be too low. Newark and NYC will hit their highest temps of the year thus far (my prediction based on what i'm seeing elsewhere tonight, apart from regular Point and click sites). Central and Southern New Jersey locales away from the water will hit 90 either day. Not to mention, the video the other day mentioned Joe B's take, that we would hit 90 in the Big Apple; with not as much cloud cover around Monday and Tuesday, we have a very good shot. Nevertheless, it will be quite balmy, any which way you slice it. 


Intellicast is woefully underdone for Monday and Tuesday, after leading the pack the other day. Shows you how unreliable the point-and-clicks can be (because they change on their own, and not necessarily with human intervention). 

Now, onto the drought:


Our local NOAA office did a release today on the impact of the drought around our area. As they and the Climate Predictions Center see it, the prospects of stabilizing things over the next two weeks look low; after 2011’s deluge, this problem started with the very dry winter season, and it was brought up here during the winter as something to watch unfold. We’ve seen many significant brush fires across the region in recent days and weeks, and more of the same is expected through the next several days, as the well-advertised, major push of summer-like temperatures takes a run at our area Sunday through Tuesday.

In their latest forecast discussion, the NWS made note of the Euro model’s depiction of a heavy rainstorm for next Wednesday night into Thursday. Should it pan out, it would offer a meager, but much-needed dent into the drought; however, other models like the GFS keep the rainfall less than impressive, so we’ll just have to wait for the various solutions to converge towards some semblance of continuity over the weekend.

So to sum up: Things to watch for next week are

a). how cool do we get after the heat blast?

b).  How long does the cool weather last before another surge of warmth comes in/ if at all?

c). will we see much needed mid-week rainfall with the push of cooler air?

SEND IN THE CLOUDS

Even though the heart of the warmth doesn’t make it here until Sunday and Monday, the best day for sun-bathing may very well be on Saturday. As we move later in the day Saturday and into the evening, cloud cover will be on the increase and a nearby warm front will lead to light rainfall Saturday night; although it will be quite warm Sunday, stubborn cloudiness may hold on for the balance of the day, even as rain chances dwindle beginning very early Sunday.


Intellicast:

Our next shot of rain would then arrive Wednesday, and with a strong front and warm temps, the first offering of widespread thunderstorm activity may be a problem in the afternoon. Depending on the timing, some storms could become nasty, but this will need updating later this weekend.

The Accuweather 25-day forecast has “warmed” to the idea that the mild temps only slowly abate between Monday and Wednesday, and this is well supported by other forecasts. Thereafter, they show a long cool period from the 20^th onward. This is something  to watch for as we move past mid week next week, but be warned, there is conflicting evidence to suggest that warmth makes another rally for late month. 


Latest Accuweather 25 Day Chart for NYC:

Until then however, beginning in ernest Saturday and through about Wednesday, the well-advertised parade of warm air will re-assert itself and give many people around these parts a flashback to…eh …well…last month?

ACCUWEATHER 25-DAY FORECAST...OLD VS. NEW....

Okay, here we go. The top version of the 25-day Accuweather forecast that we talked about last week versus the current version. Now, we'll stack this up against the prognostications that were alluded to in the last post, and i'll see if i can make any sense out of this:

OLD Forecast

New Forecast:

The new forecast shows a dip in the week of the 15th, implying that a cool shot is on the way, but it's very brief. Note the dip in the chart around the 17th, which in the last post, was focused on with the GFS chart. However, from the 18th-24th, another above normal spike is evident.

The bottom line with this in my opinion: Taken verbatim, the Accuweather 25 day forecast shows a relatively brief cool shot next week around mid- week, before another notable rebound in temps after that. This flies in the face of the weatherbell week three forecast, which shows that the pattern stays cool through the 24th.

The idea behind this is that the storm that comes into the western states makes its way over to us by late next week and re-inforces the cold enough so that the cool wins out in the time frame between the 20th-24th.

we'll see.

WARMTH LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BENEFICIAL RAINS FOLLOW?

Full-Screen Version of Video

The answer to the rainfall question is hard to pin down, but there is a growing threat of enhanced precip across the southeast for next week:

if we can get even some of this rain our way mid-to-late next week, it would go a long way towards alleviating the fire danger that has creeped in this spring. Already, many small to medium sized brush fires have developed around the region in recent weeks.

Much of this week we're in now is cool, with threats of rain already covered here. Additionally, the idea of warming temps this weekend is well supported now by multiple sources, with cooler weather perhaps taking shape after next Wednesday.

Here is the temp forecast from Weatherbell, made available to non-subscribers this past Saturday

It shows a warm week overall from the 15th through the 19th, as does the Climate Predictions Center:

But all of this warmth may be front-loaded. Look at the GFS model implications for next Thursday, as many of its individual members show colder air sweeping in to scour out the significant warmth.

So the plan is that we start the warming in earnest by this Saturday, with the apex of the warmth Monday into Tuesday (assuming very light rain and clouds don't ruin Monday).

 In the period Sunday through Tuesday, we should see highs climb into the 70s and low 80s, and even to near the 90 degree plateau either Sunday or Monday:

Intellicast shows this in their temp graph.

With all this in mind, the question for next week goes back to where we started; can we get some much needed rains by mid week next week, along with the cooler air, to dampen the fire danger and help the growing season along?

STRONG WINDS ONGOING TODAY...

The highest gust last hour was at Kennedy, which came in at 43mph.

With a very high fire danger today and the strong winds, it's no wonder the NWS has "red flag warnings" up.

YANKEES' OPENING DAY OUTLOOK...

SOME OBSERVATIONS ON AN EASTER MORN...

1. Monday and Tuesday are looking warmer this week, with few opportunities for rain. In fact, the NWS office noted this morning that there's a potential for graupel ( or something resembling small hail) with any showers that pop up on Tuesday. I think Joe Lundberg had the best idea on the week's temps, by saying that Wednesday and Thursday are the coolest days.

Here are the Temps from Intellicast:

See how warm Monday's looking now? But beware, because the winds will crank. Intellicast shows that the winds will max out at around 27mph, but NWS has some gusts approaching 40mph tomorrow.

Precip still looks like it's most likely Wednesday and thursday, but a new wrinkle has arrived in the forecast for this week. There are hints that rain could sweep in late Saturday night, which is something to keep an eye on. This would put a "damper" on a warm looking weekend overall:

Tomorrow, we'll look at the Yankees' opening day forecasts

Happy Easter!