Thursday, May 31, 2012

VIDEO: BEWARE OF A JUNE TEMPERATURE SWOON NEXT WEEK

Predictability of forecast period from NOW through Sunday evening: HIGH

Predictability of forecast period from Monday Through Wednesday: LOW


"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

DANGEROUS STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO AREA AROUND 8:00PM

A big day for northeast severe weather, as the storms headed our way are responsible for a lot of damaging wind reports today.



Keep an eye to the sky through 10pm, with the leading edge of the storms approaching around or shortly after 8:00 pm. These storms will weaken out on the island, but they will hold together enough to produce heavy rain and vivid lightning.


Monday, May 28, 2012

TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN NEXT SEVEN DAYS...

Predictability of forecast period: MEDIUM

1. Heavy rain/thunderstorms will overspread entire region late tomorrow afternoon/night. Potential for 1/2-1 inch precip with higher amounts possible in any heavier storms. Warm, muggy day, with highs in the 80s.

2. Wednesday, a risk of a shower/storm confined to the northwest of the city and coast. Highs in the low 80s.  Less humid. Turning cooler and breezy Wednesday night into Thursday. Lows near 60 wednesday night. Thursday's the gem of the week, with highs mid 70s and a bit breezy (less humid).


Intellicast Humidity values Wednesday are comfortable:





Intellicast Temps for the week:



3. Clouds move in Friday, with numerous showers developing late Friday afternoon/evening. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. Highs fall back into the lower 70s, as more unsettled weather plagues the region to open June.

4. Video thursday will hone in on weekend weather picture.

5. Thursday overview had many shortcomings. See previous posts on this.


"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

OVERVIEW FROM THURSDAY HAD NUMEROUS SHORTCOMINGS...

A frustrating pattern indeed. Three major shortfalls took place over the last three days:


  • rain chances were numerous friday in nyc and points to the east



  • saturday, thunderstorms did make it through much of the city in the afternoon



  • sunday was not an "active" day with storms. Weakening storms managed to make it through late at night


On the bright side, the temps are pretty much spot on. No 90-degree heat all weekend. Today and tuesday were the days which looked warmest, and they will be.

All in all, a disappointing debut for the termanology. I might start doing a "predictability" level (low, medium or high) for the week ahead and the ensuing overview. I THINK that this week will be predictable; less stagnant pattern, with the tendency for storms (Tomorrow and again Friday) to keep moving through instead of getting hung up across the area. That was the problem here, and has been for the better part of May.

This is going to be a long summer of unsettled weather around here in my opinion. The idea of the cooler weather from other sources will rule the day and cause above-normal rain/thunderstorms. Plus, there's pretty good reason to believe that another tropical threat will emerge at some point, but to what degree (weakening storm or stronger Tropical Storm/Hurricane) is anyone's guess.

More later. Regular overview coming tonight, followed by a video on Thursday.