DANGEROUS WINTER STORM POISED TO STRIKE THE TRI-STATE AREA

FINAL THOUGHTS

The northern edge of the storm (or fringes of the storm) are always tough to forecast. Over the last 24 hours, there has been a discernible trend northward in the handing of the extent of the heaviest snows. This has resulted in a drastic uptick in forecasted amounts by NOAA, especially for NYC and Long Island.

The combination of the coastal flooding and the higher than expected snowfall impacts to our region may make this storm the worst winter storm we’ve seen in quite some time. This is impressive considering all the prolific snow-makers which have affected the region since the late 1990s.

Snow should build in before daybreak (faster than expected) and become heavy at times by mid-morning from south to north.

In any one place, snow in the 12-18” area could last for 12-18 hours. Mixing will be minimal, even way out on the Island.  There is a real danger that snow amounts exceed the 18” plateau, but this will have to be addressed during the storm.  The best candidates for 18”+ amounts lie along the south shore of NYC, Long Island and especially over much of the state of New Jersey.

Winds will be as high as 60mph out on the Island and across coastal NYC.  Power outages are a possibility due to the heavy, wet nature of the snow…

Stay tuned!

MAJOR WINTER STORM HIGHLIGHTS THE WEEKEND WEATHER

1. Much like last year's blizzard on 1/25/15, NYC will be on the fringes. Snow develops in the morning Saturday in the NYC metro area/Long Island and then struggles to creep north during the day. Eventually, snow spreads to all areas of the Tri-State area ( only as far up as areas shaded in blue). Potential for blizzard criteria is high for Long Island and NYC Saturday afternoon and evening when the heaviest snows fall.  Storm departs late Saturday night all areas.

The updated idea is on the left, the older outlook is on the right......





2. Moderate coastal flooding during Saturday evening, with locally major coastal flooding possible on the Jersey shore for the same time period.

3. Quiet for Sunday and most of next week. Cold front crosses mid-week, with light rain (Monday night) and snow showers (Tuesday night).

4. Turning cold for late week next week. Another storm could threaten the eastern seaboard next weekend, but too early for specifics.

5. Significant warmth develops towards the beginning of February.

SEVERE SNOWSTORM TAKING SHAPE FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

**NEW JERSEY WILL BE EPICENTER OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING ON SATURDAY **

The weekend powerhouse storm is coming into focus. Heaviest snowfall accumulation look to be confined to the coast, with lesser amounts the further north and west you head. In fact, the bust potential is fairly high for areas north of Rockland and Westchester counties. 

 Further south, over the Mid-Atlantic states, snowfall may reach record-setting territory! 

Snow looks to spread into the metro area around daybreak Saturday and become heavy at times by mid-to-late morning. Blizzard conditions should develop for a time on the coast due to strong northeast winds and heavy snowfall. The likelihood of blizzard conditions is highest in the afternoon and evening, particularly along the coast. Travel may become impossible Saturday night. 

The snowfall idea shown here is a blend of the available guidance, Steven Dimartino,  Joe Cioffi and ideas of storm type from Joe Bastardi. The storm's structure and genre has striking similarities to the Blizzard of February 10/11 1983. 

Northeast Snowstorms: Volume II (Kocin/Uccellini)

Coastal flooding will be a huge problem, particularly for the New Jersey coast; tides and water levels may exceed some of the highest recorded levels since the 1940s. 

Another update will be necessary tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night...

WEEKEND WINTER STORM SCENARIOS

A strong winter storm will begin to intensify over the southern states and track towards the area on Friday. The storm will bring copious amounts of Gulf and Atlantic moisture with it on its journey up the coast during the weekend.

Position of storm as of 10am Tuesday 1/19/16

Stubborn high pressure to the north of the storm will lock in sufficient amounts of cold air, making for most, if not all of the precipitation to be in the form of snow for the entire area. However, the aforementioned high  may be strong enough to keep the heaviest snows to our south, resulting in only moderate-sized snowfall totals.

 In many ways, the evolution of this storm resembles some of the more nefarious types of winter storms we've seen over the last 20 years on the eastern seaboard.

TIMING: The biggest impact to the region will be on Saturday, with slowly improving conditions on Sunday as the storm pulls away early in the day. Light snow should begin from south to north during late Friday evening and become heavy at times by Saturday morning.

IMPACTS: It's still uncertain which areas will receive the highest snowfall totals, but we should know by tomorrow night and especially Thursday.

Coastal flooding will be a huge problem. If the bulk of the snow misses to the south, this storm could still be remembered as one which brought tidal flooding and significant beach erosion. This storm will coincide with a full moon; expect moderate to major coastal flooding at the times of highest tides.




Winds will be very strong along the coast. Wind speeds could exceed 50mph on Saturday and Saturday night regardless of who gets the heaviest snowfall.





In short, this is a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm, but the exact snowfall amounts are still highly uncertain. The coastal flooding impacts should not be overlooked in any way. In addition, the storm will have far-reaching affects; those traveling over the weekend should consider leaving early if possible to avoid any complications.

 Stay tuned.

SCENARIO #1: Major blizzard with coastal flooding. 1-2 foot accumulations for the entire area.

SCENARIO #2: Bulk of the snow remains to the south of the immediate metro area, but significant coastal flooding occurs with strong winds. Moderate snowfall accumulations.

Accumulation ideas will be out by Thursday the latest.