Thursday, February 6, 2014

LATE WEEKEND STORM SHOULD DELIVER ONLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...

First off, the analysis here will turn out to be flawed. The system ultimately responsible will not emerge from out of the Gulf of Mexico, but rather, it will be two weak storms coming out of the Mid-western states.  This detail is critical; it'll mean that the disturbance from the midwest will not will be able to draw on additional Gulf moisture (or merge with another storm), thus sparing the region a major snowfall. The scenarios depicted by Accuweather are shown below and the lighter, less robust impact (scenario #1) is the more likely outcome.



Light snow is most likely overnight Saturday/early Sunday for a few hours, with another round of light snow Sunday night. Accumulations could top 3 inches.

Lost in all of the absurd speculation about this storm is the fact that this active pattern will continue overall through mid-month.



Every few days, we'll have to watch for storm systems traversing the lower-48. Any one of these storms will have the potential to bring a moderate snowfall to the region through the 15th or so.

Intellicast.com


Our next shot at significant wintry precip will come mid-week for Wednesday into Thursday, so stay tuned.



Monday, February 3, 2014

WINTER STORM FOR WEDNESDAY WILL INCLUDE A GLAZE OF ICE...

The second in what could ultimately be three storms this week will affect the area beginning overnight Tuesday/Wednesday and continue for much of Wednesday before ending Wednesday night.




The majority of the storm now looks like it's snow for areas in red. However, the lack of depth to the cold air in place ahead of the storm will lead to snow changing to sleet and freezing rain for a time, especially during the mid-morning hours.


Intellicast.com

Regarding the weekend, all numerical guidance shows a powerful winter storm tracking along the Atlantic seaboard from Saturday night into Sunday night. 



The closest approach of the low to our region will be Sunday into Sunday night. 
Right now, a significant accumulation is looking likely. 
There will be more than the usual amount of speculation about this storm, 
but the only thing we know for sure is that the odds of another heavy snowfall
 appear to be growing at this time. 

Speculation of total accumulations will not be dealt with until Thursday or Friday, 
but there is a chance that this system could be the most disruptive storm of 
the entire winter season to date.

 Stay tuned.