Saturday, May 19, 2012

ALBERTO FORMS NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...

Great call by Joe Bastardi for picking out this pattern well in advance of anyone...

NHC Forecast




Weather Overview MAP



TROPICAL STORM TRYING TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...

it was pointed out last Sunday with the map, that we would have to watch a coastal storm for early this week. And although we won't have a legitimate tropical storm to deal with, the overall pattern will spell yet another period of murky, unsettled weather by Monday, which will last through much of the week...



The most likely scenario is for the storm to meander north and spill clouds our way by Monday. Another storm, just to the northeast of the low pressure near the Carolina coast, will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms (scattered) from Monday through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday. This whole conglomeration of storminess is very difficult to forecast, and will have to be fine tuned tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the summer-like warmth!

Monday, May 14, 2012

ACCU-WEATHER PULLS BACK RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...END OF THE WEEK LOOKS GREAT

No surprise if you read here yesterday, but Accweather did pull down amounts from their forecast from Sunday, which touted 2-4 inches of rain between now and Wednesday in areas west of the city. They are now in lock-step with NOAA's rain amounts; there's no change in their forecasted rain amounts for NYC metro and points east...

Barely any rain has fallen across the city and points east today, and a slow progression eastward of the heaviest rainfall still looks good...

The games for Philly and New York look ok tonight, but I don't expect the Mets game to be played tomorrow night. We'll see if that comes true.

Sunday, May 13, 2012

ASSESSING THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS WEEK...

the map is divided, with northwestern areas being separated from the coastal zones to give this overview some continuity...So here we go:


The actual accu-weather map is more bullish on rainfall amounts north and west of NYC:






Here's the actual NOAA storm total precip, which is preferred here over Accuweather's




We have to watch a coastal storm this weekend, which may develop and meander off of the Carolina coast.

This week's temps are near normal for highs, but could bust if the coastal low forms and throws clouds over us for all or part of the weekend coming up:

Intellicast




more later