Saturday, February 9, 2013
Thursday, February 7, 2013
SO WHAT HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY...
In a nutshell, the forecasts for snowfall accumulation from most every source for all areas of the tri-state areas have increased. In addition, the duration of the snowfall and strong wind speeds is now forecasted to last into a good part of Saturday morning, particularly for NYC and points eastward
The reason for all of this is because most model guidance is now depicting an even stronger storm, with even greater potential for tremendous snowfall rates (per hour) from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. In fact, the forecast "problem" may ultimately be that the change to rain Friday morning for the coastal plain may be very short-lived!
The epicenter of the worst weather looks to be be Connecticut , with Long Island as the candidate in New York State; Blizzard Watches have been extended through much of the Nutmeg State, with snowfall amounts from NOAA forecasted to be 18-24 inches. And, due to its proximity to the storm, and the potential for similar wind speeds, Long Island may finish runner up, with widespread totals of a foot or more when all is said and done.
This is not the last update. Another will come later today or tonight. But it is clear that a trend towards a major snowstorm is taking place, with the foreign model guidance leading the way from the get go.
stay tuned.
The reason for all of this is because most model guidance is now depicting an even stronger storm, with even greater potential for tremendous snowfall rates (per hour) from late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. In fact, the forecast "problem" may ultimately be that the change to rain Friday morning for the coastal plain may be very short-lived!
The epicenter of the worst weather looks to be be Connecticut , with Long Island as the candidate in New York State; Blizzard Watches have been extended through much of the Nutmeg State, with snowfall amounts from NOAA forecasted to be 18-24 inches. And, due to its proximity to the storm, and the potential for similar wind speeds, Long Island may finish runner up, with widespread totals of a foot or more when all is said and done.
This is not the last update. Another will come later today or tonight. But it is clear that a trend towards a major snowstorm is taking place, with the foreign model guidance leading the way from the get go.
stay tuned.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
MULTI-PRONGED WINTER STORM WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS FOR THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
Since Tuesday of this week, the main question all along for the upcoming storm revolved around if/how fast the rain/snow mix would change back to heavy snow over the area. With even better focus, model guidance has now come around even more to the idea that this transition will be not only be a bit sooner, but more importantly, be quite dramatic Friday afternoon and evening.
The bottom line: Snow will begin as early as Thursday evening and continue to fall overnight friday before changing to rain by dawn for the city and coast. Accumulations will be around 1 inch during this time.
Before the transition back to snow Friday evening, ice buildup and freezing rain will be the biggest problem for the area on the whole, but this looks to happen north of NYC, where colder air will be trapped longer.
After a rain/snow mix for the first half of the day on Friday nearest to the coast, the developing strong nor’easter will eventually bring periods of very heavy snow and sustained winds of over 30mph to the region for late Friday afternoon through Friday night.
There is a high potential for near-blizzard conditions during the height of the storm for Friday evening. (NOTE: “Blizzard” is more about the actual visibility than the total amount of snowfall).
Areas EAST and north of NYC have the highest chance of seeing over 6 inches of snow, with the greatest potential of widespread one foot totals being over central/eastern Long Island and much of Connecticut. The eventual track and strength of the storm will determine the amount we get (as always)
This is shaping up to be a dangerous, high-impact storm, and the biggest winter storm we’ve seen in about two years (exception being the October 2011 snowstorm).
People with plans to travel in the late day and early evening on Friday should monitor the weather situation very carefully. If you must travel by vehicle, make sure to pack a winter survival kit . Those persons traveling by rail and air should check for possible widespread delays and cancellations Friday afternoon and night.
Final Update tomorrow with map included.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
COASTAL STORM LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
The potential has markedly increased over the last few days for a significant storm affecting the region late Thursday night into most of Friday. The details still are in question, but a “toss-up” storm, as opposed to an all-out snowstorm, is the most likely outcome at this stage.
A general theme of snow, to rain, back to snow seems the way to envision this right now, with the wild card being if a significant accumulation can take place on the back end of the storm for NYC and the coast (similar storms in the past five years have done this).
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| Accuweather |
Areas a bit north and west of the coast stand the best chance of seeing snowfall amounts over six inches; for them, the precip should be able to stay more frozen, but even they will experience mixed precipitation at some point, holding down accumulations a bit.
The weekend looks dry, with the next chance of precip (mainly rain) coming Monday.
More to come
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