Since Tuesday of this week, the main question all along for the upcoming storm revolved around if/how fast the rain/snow mix would change back to heavy snow over the area. With even better focus, model guidance has now come around even more to the idea that this transition will be not only be a bit sooner, but more importantly, be quite dramatic Friday afternoon and evening.
The bottom line: Snow will begin as early as Thursday evening and continue to fall overnight friday before changing to rain by dawn for the city and coast. Accumulations will be around 1 inch during this time.
Before the transition back to snow Friday evening, ice buildup and freezing rain will be the biggest problem for the area on the whole, but this looks to happen north of NYC, where colder air will be trapped longer.
After a rain/snow mix for the first half of the day on Friday nearest to the coast, the developing strong nor’easter will eventually bring periods of very heavy snow and sustained winds of over 30mph to the region for late Friday afternoon through Friday night.
There is a high potential for near-blizzard conditions during the height of the storm for Friday evening. (NOTE: “Blizzard” is more about the actual visibility than the total amount of snowfall).
Areas EAST and north of NYC have the highest chance of seeing over 6 inches of snow, with the greatest potential of widespread one foot totals being over central/eastern Long Island and much of Connecticut. The eventual track and strength of the storm will determine the amount we get (as always)
This is shaping up to be a dangerous, high-impact storm, and the biggest winter storm we’ve seen in about two years (exception being the October 2011 snowstorm).
People with plans to travel in the late day and early evening on Friday should monitor the weather situation very carefully. If you must travel by vehicle, make sure to pack a winter survival kit . Those persons traveling by rail and air should check for possible widespread delays and cancellations Friday afternoon and night.
Final Update tomorrow with map included.
Fantastic report Kevin. Will our Friday night out at Crabtree's be in jeopardy? When JIm Cantore leads off the news you know it is a big weather story.
ReplyDeletemaybe they'll be cool and stay open. as long as you have a friend with a truck, go out! you can all pile in. Hopefully the driver is willing to be the DD so that way you can hit the wine :) nothing like snow and alcohol!
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