WEEKEND COOL-DOWN

1. Fog develops late tonight. Clouds prevail tomorrow and again on Friday, with light rain/drizzle moving in during the afternoon and at night.  Remaining very warm despite the clouds on Thursday, with highs in the 60s.

2. Another balmy November day is on tap for Friday.  Any rain should hold off until a fast-moving cold front moves through with a few showers during the evening hours. The bigger story with this front as a return to more seasonable temps for the weekend.

3. Chilly night for Sunday night/Monday, with widespread low temps in the 30s. Calm winds and no cloud cover will allow temps to bottom out area-wide.

4. Quiet for Monday, but clouds lower and thicken for Tuesday and Wednesday. Exiting high pressure to our east and nearby disturbances could trigger rain at some point in this period.

Meteorologistjoecioffi.com

5. Signs of any significant change in the weather pattern which would promote much cooler weather (like we saw last November) are elusive. Any major reconfiguration of the pattern in the Northern Hemisphere should be slow over the next week to 10 days. 

WINTER 2015-16: ACTIVE, STORMY WINTER AHEAD WITH ABOVE-NORMAL SNOWFALL

RATIONALE: The backdrop of the upcoming winter season revolves around a strong El Nino, warm sea-surface temperatures near the east coast and in the northern Pacific Ocean, rapid expansion of Siberian snow cover and an active southern jet stream. All of the aformentioned factors will work in concert to produce an abundance of storms this year.  The phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream will be critical in pinpointing exactly where the heaviest snows fall during any one particular storm. Look for a lot of variability in forecasts in the run-up to potential threats yet again this season.

Snow cover as of 10/28/15

The one critical characteristic of the El Nino this year which gives us a clue to the winter, lies in Region 3.4; in short, warmer water in the Central Pacific as opposed to closer to South America, tends to favor higher snowfall totals over the Southern and Eastern states.

El Nino Regions

In El Nino years where the opposite is true (warmer water closer to South America in Regions 1.2 and slightly cooler water in the Central Pacific), our winters tend to be more benign, allowing for more rain chances closer to the coast and longer intrusions of mild, Pacific air.

How This El Nino Compares To The "Super-Nino" of 1997. 

Water Temps: October, 2015

Water Temps: September, 1997

Generally speaking, winters of this type ebb and flow. There will be periods of warmer weather with less storms, much like we saw from mid-December to mid-January in the last winter.

Typically, in El Nino winters, late January to late March tends to be the worst part. Examples of this would be 2009-10, 2002-03, and 2010-11.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG: Similar El Nino winters have sometimes favored a storm track further to our south. A good example of this can be found in the winter of 1986-1987, which brought record-setting snows to the Mid-Atlantic region while brushing the immediate Tri-State area and points north.  Also, as noted above, storms which involve phasing of the two branches of the jet stream could lead to inland storm tracks; an inland storm track would pull in mild air, cutting down on seasonal snowfall accumulations, particularly towards the coast.

CPC: NOAA Winter Outlook

Meteorologist Joe Cioffi's Winter Outlook

Weatherbell Winter Outlook

Steven DeMartino's Winter Outlook

THE BOTTOM LINE: Prepare for another cold, stormy season, with the emphasis on mid-to-late winter. This season should also be slow to relent much like last year.