ONGOING EARLY SUMMER HEAT BLAST WILL BE A THING OF THE PAST NEXT WEEK

Predictability of forecast period NOW through Monday: MEDIUM
Predictability of forecast period Tues-Thurs: LOW


1. High impacting, heat-crushing thunderstorm event looms for tomorrow, right in time for the heart of the evening rush-hour. Isolated damaging winds possible, but heavy rain the big threat. Flash flooding might be huge headache on main arteries (trains included) during peak traffic tomorrow afternoon/early evening, even all the way to Long Island’s east end. Mets/Yankees delay possible, but washout not likely, as storms will wind down by mid-evening.


Storm Prediction Center for Tomorrow:

2. Highs near 90 in urban areas Friday; this may be the last time the mercury touches 90 degrees for the next 7-10 days. 80s on the island.

3. Front which will bring relief is slow to clear eastern sections Saturday. Therefore, a risk of a shower/storm cannot be ruled out east of NYC Saturday morning/early afternoon. Highs still in the mid 80s most places, but less humid Saturday. Lows in the 60s to near 70. Dry Sunday with pleasant temps.

Intellicast:

4. Major cool-down Monday through Wednesday, possibly into Thursday;  cloud cover and temps in the low 70s for highs. Front comes through Monday afternoon, providing the opportunity for numerous showers and thunderstorms.

5. Estimates may be too high for “high” temps in Monday-Thursday period, as incoming air mass is unusually cool for this time of year. Set-up looks similar to opening of June, which clobbered forecasted temps for mid-upper 70s (reality was low/middle 60s).

6. Precip chances uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday, as overall pattern is very unsettled, and primed for numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Update will be needed to address this.

HEAT WARNINGS...BLAH BLAH BLAH...

An important component to all of these heat-related advisories/warnings from NOAA is the "Heat Index." 

Central Park’s temp and humidity values fell in the afternoon . So although it’s hot out, it’s not really meeting “warning” criteria. Using the sources commonly listed here, I told people on Sunday that the humidity would drop during peak heating, and it has today! 

It was more humid in the morning than it was during the afternoon, and the temp leveled off around 2pm. 

My point: NOAA should have stuck with an advisory for what it’s worth (which I don’t think it’s much). They should never issue heat advisories/warnings for NYC unless it’s going to hit 100, or be within a degree or two of it. Also, while I’m at it, they should never issue flood watches; the same main roads flood no matter what the situation is. Who cares?!?

Back to what you were doing…

HERE IT COMES...

if there's any doubt as to the extent of the potency of this two day heat spell, you need only look at the temp chart at this hour

i drew a line showing the temporary boundary of 70s vs 80 degree plus temps  AT THIS HOUR! And to see it is quite impressive (or oppressive)

The spike in energy usage the next two days may lead to brown outs. It's just such a dramatic flip from what we've had all month long, that it will really take people by surprise, no matter how much you think you are prepared.

Next week looks very "cool." A strong disturbance may roll through early next week with the possibility of severe weather, or a heavy rainfall. Behind it, temps stay very cool, like we've had the last few days. The possibility exists that the month of June may be the first "below normal temp month" we've had in over a year, but that's another story for next week.

until then, get ready, because the furnace is set to crank. And even past Thursday, temps will still manage to be rather warm, as the step down to next week's cool charge will come in two pieces.

TWO DAYS OF HEAT, THEN A RETREAT...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY--LOW 

1. Temps start coming up Tuesday, but crescendo comes Wednesday/Thursday. Truly hot temps, with urban areas touching mid/upper 90s for highs. 80s (wednesday) then some isolated 90s (Thursday) even on Long Island. Warmest day is Thursday. Risk of a thunderstorm Thursday north and west of NYC.

2. Lows in the mid to upper 70s. Uncomfortable sleeping Wednesday/thursday nights.

intellicast Temps:

2. As the mercury climbs this week, humidity levels drop in the mid-afternoon! WInd direction not conducive to super muggy air mass. Still though, caution should be used during peak afternoon sun.

HEAT INDEX CHART, which shows how it "feels" on your body.  It says to use "extreme caution" for Wednesday, Thursday.

3. Front comes barreling in Friday, with the possibility of heavy rain/storms. Temps lower due to cloud cover and ensuing precip in the early afternoon/early evening. Highs in the lower/mid 80s. Humidity spikes Friday before front sweeps through.

4. Risk of a shower or storm for the weekend, as temps come back to near-normal levels. Week of the 24th looking very cool overall, with some unsettled periods of showers and storms (details to come)

5. Tropics could become active in the gulf this week, possibly affecting deep south Texas. Strong typhoon will hit Mainland Japan on Tuesday.

From NOAA: