ONGOING EARLY SUMMER HEAT BLAST WILL BE A THING OF THE PAST NEXT WEEK

Predictability of forecast period NOW through Monday: MEDIUM
Predictability of forecast period Tues-Thurs: LOW


1. High impacting, heat-crushing thunderstorm event looms for tomorrow, right in time for the heart of the evening rush-hour. Isolated damaging winds possible, but heavy rain the big threat. Flash flooding might be huge headache on main arteries (trains included) during peak traffic tomorrow afternoon/early evening, even all the way to Long Island’s east end. Mets/Yankees delay possible, but washout not likely, as storms will wind down by mid-evening.


Storm Prediction Center for Tomorrow:

2. Highs near 90 in urban areas Friday; this may be the last time the mercury touches 90 degrees for the next 7-10 days. 80s on the island.

3. Front which will bring relief is slow to clear eastern sections Saturday. Therefore, a risk of a shower/storm cannot be ruled out east of NYC Saturday morning/early afternoon. Highs still in the mid 80s most places, but less humid Saturday. Lows in the 60s to near 70. Dry Sunday with pleasant temps.

Intellicast:

4. Major cool-down Monday through Wednesday, possibly into Thursday;  cloud cover and temps in the low 70s for highs. Front comes through Monday afternoon, providing the opportunity for numerous showers and thunderstorms.

5. Estimates may be too high for “high” temps in Monday-Thursday period, as incoming air mass is unusually cool for this time of year. Set-up looks similar to opening of June, which clobbered forecasted temps for mid-upper 70s (reality was low/middle 60s).

6. Precip chances uncertain for Tuesday and Wednesday, as overall pattern is very unsettled, and primed for numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Update will be needed to address this.

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle