LATE-MORNING WEATHER ROUND-UP ...

current temps as of 1130am from intellicast.com

THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SATURDAY STILL REAL

A quickie here as i wanted to update on thunderstorm chances for tomorrow. Check out the video if you haven't already.

But first, here is a cool graphic on NYC 100-degree days by decade, courtesy of Weatherbell:

Now, about the storm prospects tomorrow, NOAA's outstanding Storm Predictions Center has the outlined threat:

In their discussion, they note that while widespread storms are very possible, the "severe" threat should be mitigated to a very small area. The "simulated radar" off of the NAM/WRF model denotes this nicely for tomorrow afternoon, with only a small cluster of intense storms embedded into a general area of rain showers...

However, it should be noted that this can change, and even with a small spacial area from which to work with, the prospect of an isolated tornado in this type of set-up is not uncommon.

I like the timing laid out in the video from yesterday.

VIDEO: SATURDAY STORMS, BUT OVERALL WARM, DRY WEEKEND

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PREIOD through Saturday evening---Medium

Sunday through Wednesday---Remaining High

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

AFTER THIS WEEK'S DEBACLE, A WARM-UP IS INEVITABLE ...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: Medium early, high after Thursday.

1. Temp ideas from NOAA's point and click from last Thursday (for today) were thrashed, as highs struggled into the 60s today. Video from Thursday caught this.

2.Expect temps in the low 60s again tomorrow (Tuesday), with numerous showers in the afternoon .

3. Numerous showers west of NYC, more of a low risk Wednesday/Thursday as temps creep up to near 70. 50s at night.

4. Warm weekend ahead, with little in the way of mechanism to spark precip through early next week. Temps rise to near 80.

5. Surge of warmth to continue into much of next week, before another cool surge late next week, which may have similar results of the past few days. Bears watching.

From the NOAA Mount Holly Facebook page:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle