Monday, June 4, 2012

AFTER THIS WEEK'S DEBACLE, A WARM-UP IS INEVITABLE ...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: Medium early, high after Thursday.

1. Temp ideas from NOAA's point and click from last Thursday (for today) were thrashed, as highs struggled into the 60s today. Video from Thursday caught this.

2.Expect temps in the low 60s again tomorrow (Tuesday), with numerous showers in the afternoon .

3. Numerous showers west of NYC, more of a low risk Wednesday/Thursday as temps creep up to near 70. 50s at night.

4. Warm weekend ahead, with little in the way of mechanism to spark precip through early next week. Temps rise to near 80.

5. Surge of warmth to continue into much of next week, before another cool surge late next week, which may have similar results of the past few days. Bears watching.

From the NOAA Mount Holly Facebook page:


PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS
HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement
MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences
LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle

1 comment:

  1. I turned the heat on this morning. No kidding. it was below 60 in the house. that's okay...you told us

    ReplyDelete