i'm pretty fired up over what i'm seeing from multiple sources on the summer and winter seasons that are on the horizon.
It may be indeed be time to start pondering the idea that our benign period of weather that started in December and culminated in the historic March heat wave, may be at an end.
A pretty dramatic ride is underway, and it could very well last into winter 2012-13...
more later.
Friday, May 4, 2012
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A BREAK SUNDAY/MONDAY...
The maddening weather waffling continues, with many forecasters scrambling to adjust to a weather pattern that is stagnant, making it difficult to pinpoint periods of cloudiness, sunshine and rain. For the next few days, with the exception of Sunday and Monday, this general theme should continue, with the risk of showers and some thunderstorms (Friday) persisting into Saturday, before we get a sunny, settled day to end the weekend.
A front draped across the Middle-Atlantic states is responsible for all the chaos, as it stubbornly and painfully moves from the south to our north. The other culprit is a blocking high pressure situated across northeast Canada, which is pushing clouds over us and a raw wind right off of the cool New England waters. Oddly enough, as we witnessed yesterday, this pattern can allow for some breaks from time to time in the mid to late day period, which can cause wide temp variations over a relatively small geographical area.
Here is the front on Thursday, located near the Del Marva Peninsula:
Now here is the front on Friday evening:
this process will literally take until Saturday evening, before a second front ( depicted above over central PA) comes in and clears us out for Sunday.
Until then, with the exception of Friday, the warmth that was promised early week continues to get chopped apart.
Once we get past Monday, another storm system will advance in and make things unsettled again by Tuesday into Wednesday. There's a threat that this pattern leads into next weekend.
May is typically a wet month around here. The region has received a general 2-4 inch rainfall over the span of a few weeks time, and there is a good chance that once to the 15th, we find that many parts of the tri state region pick up even more (not counting what falls before Sunday).
A front draped across the Middle-Atlantic states is responsible for all the chaos, as it stubbornly and painfully moves from the south to our north. The other culprit is a blocking high pressure situated across northeast Canada, which is pushing clouds over us and a raw wind right off of the cool New England waters. Oddly enough, as we witnessed yesterday, this pattern can allow for some breaks from time to time in the mid to late day period, which can cause wide temp variations over a relatively small geographical area.
Here is the front on Thursday, located near the Del Marva Peninsula:
Now here is the front on Friday evening:
this process will literally take until Saturday evening, before a second front ( depicted above over central PA) comes in and clears us out for Sunday.
Until then, with the exception of Friday, the warmth that was promised early week continues to get chopped apart.
Once we get past Monday, another storm system will advance in and make things unsettled again by Tuesday into Wednesday. There's a threat that this pattern leads into next weekend.
May is typically a wet month around here. The region has received a general 2-4 inch rainfall over the span of a few weeks time, and there is a good chance that once to the 15th, we find that many parts of the tri state region pick up even more (not counting what falls before Sunday).
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Monday, April 30, 2012
MAY STARTS OFF WARM, BUT UGLY WEATHER LOOKING LIKELY NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...
The overview yesterday had a link to the Weatherbell site, which does a free "Saturday Summary" for JB's take; it seems that his predictions, which were in a terrible funk all winter long, have really come true since March. He is calling for a cool May, with front-loaded warmth for this week ultimately being replaced by substantially cool, and wet conditions for the bulk of the month.
Now, it appears that some objective model guidance is taking his side. The GFS for next Thursday is showing a pocket of very cool air over the region.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS model, which was superb for its depiction of week two temps throughout the very warm winter, is giving credence to the JB/GFS scenarios.
More later...
Now, it appears that some objective model guidance is taking his side. The GFS for next Thursday is showing a pocket of very cool air over the region.
Meanwhile, the NAEFS model, which was superb for its depiction of week two temps throughout the very warm winter, is giving credence to the JB/GFS scenarios.
More later...
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, WARMER BUT SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED...
1. Monday (tomorrow) sees temps climb quickly under fair skies. Readings in the 60s, with cooler temps on the island (upper 50s). Good chance of light rain overnight Monday/Tuesday (through midday Tuesday); in spite of more clouds Tuesday, expect similar temps to that of Monday's highs.
2. Wednesday through Saturday will feature increasingly warmer temps, as most areas will climb easily into the 70s starting Thursday. Clouds and weak storms in close proximity to us will keep the threat of showers in the picture during the period as well, but no washouts are expected. Friday looks like the warmest day.
intellicast temps and precip:
3. Signs in the long term paint a cooler second week of May overall, and the prospect that this week's hot surge is transient. Bares watching.
4. Video coming Tuesday will deal with precip chances for late week/weekend.
2. Wednesday through Saturday will feature increasingly warmer temps, as most areas will climb easily into the 70s starting Thursday. Clouds and weak storms in close proximity to us will keep the threat of showers in the picture during the period as well, but no washouts are expected. Friday looks like the warmest day.
intellicast temps and precip:
3. Signs in the long term paint a cooler second week of May overall, and the prospect that this week's hot surge is transient. Bares watching.
4. Video coming Tuesday will deal with precip chances for late week/weekend.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)