STILL WATCHING FOR AN EASTER WEEKEND STORM...

1. After a mainly sunny Sunday, light rain moves in Sunday afternoon/night into Monday morning. Precip should be mainly light and not cause any road flooding. Temps start in the 50s, but turn raw and chilly at night with rainfall. Becoming windy Sunday night and continuing into Monday as rain tapers early.

Accuweather.com

2. Dry for the bulk of the week, with temps near 60 during the day/40s at night.  Quick shot of rain may pan out for late Tuesday or early Wednesday, but the odds are low at this time.

3. Delightful weather for Easter Sunday looking much more likely, but we still have to watch a potential storm system for Friday into Saturday as per the last overview.  Temps in the 50s Thursday through Saturday with possibly mid-60s by next Sunday.

Penn State EWALL Site for Easter Sunday:

4. While there is a chance of a cold period beyond this week, temps will probably average near-to-slightly above normal once again, as we move into the second week of April.  Much more certain is the prospect of drier-than-normal conditions through mid-month.

Climate Predictions Center 8-14 Day Precip Outlook Valid 4/7-4/13/12:

BUFFALO'S PALTRY SNOW STATS FOR 2011-12

Look at this! A great job by the Buffalo NWS (where it's presently snowing at this hour)

only 35 total inches for the season as of 3/28/12. that's easily half the normal total. The bottom graph is the snow plot, and the top graph is the temps. See how they ran way above their normal temp continuously, which allowed few lake effect outbreaks?

I guess no real need for this guy, eh??

WET SNOW WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY TONIGHT, THEN SUNDAY NIGHT...

It's not going to be much, but the highest elevations of the Berkshires and Catskills will see some 1-2 inch totals. The accuweather map from the previous post from Wednesday was a bit too far south (in New York State) with its snow axis. They don't even had the story on their site any longer. of course, to be fair, we won't know if this is the case til after the storm on Saturday is by the area.

Here is the GFS model. The green and pink areas are where snow can fly the next two days.

For our immediate neck of the woods, Sunday's still the best weekend day as per the video from Tuesday. However, some light rain will move in Sunday night and continue into Monday before it quits Monday midday.

This was not in the last overview

The upcoming overview will come out tomorrow or Sunday in usual form, followed by a mid week video.  It will try to nail down the Easter situation. Right now, it might be much ado about nothing as models are backing off on their more bullish idea of cold and stormy for next weekend.

more later. . .

HOW DID THESE MISS NYC??

I hear some thunder in the distance, but Nassau took a big hit tonight (still ongoing) from renegade thunderstorms that just seemingly developed out of nowhere.

Power is out in parts of my hometown of Seaford on the south shore. Thanks Chris for the update, as yes, I WAS CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THIS...

damn. 

SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST BURBS FRIDAY NIGHT? DON'T BUY IT (YET)

Joe Bastardi showed the NAM model with its snowfall depiction (yeah that's right) for Friday night just outside the city. He tweeted it also. it's from the Earl Barker Site:

See the snow very close to NYC (verbatim), but it's just one model out of many that we could look at. 

Meanwhile, the Accuweather crew has a slide and a story on it. 

But our weather service isn't buying it at all. 

Can someone tell me why a GREAT meteorologist like Lee Goldberg doesn't update his blog daily? I'll never understand it. It's like having one of your best players take a few days off a week during the baseball season (no offense, A-Rod).

More later on...

DISSECTING THE PRECIP CHANCES AND LOOKING AT POTENTIAL EASTER TROUBLE...

Full-screen Version:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8irdBCttbE

TRACKING TONIGHT'S WIND CHILL AND THE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH NEXT MONDAY

First the wind chill through 7am tomorrow morning from Intellicast.

NOW THROUGH 11PM

What a contrast between last week and tonight!! Simply brutal is the word to describe it; having temps FEEL almost 60 degrees cooler is rough on anyone (even the biggest weather nerds).

MIDNIGHT THROUGH 12 NOON TOMORROW (TUESDAY)

At six in the morning tomorrow, it'll feel like it's 18 degrees...

The precip chances are tricky. Wednesday and Monday stand out, with only 50/50 for Wednesday and more likely next Monday. Wednesday could have enough of a push for thunderstorms (isolated) in the afternoon and evening.

Here is the Intellicast graph again:

It should be noted that NOAA disagrees with the Monday rain, and has showers for Saturday night (with a dry start to next week).

We'll wait for the saturday through Monday period to be more resolved before another overview comes out.

UNUSUAL SPRING WARMTH MAY BE REPLACED BY A HARSH, WINTRY OPENING TO APRIL

All along, before the heat began, and through the month of March, Weatherbell's Joe Bastardi warned about a possible "bookends winter" scenario shaping up for the Northeast states. As we've gotten closer to April 1st, not only has the weather responded with the impending sharp shots of freezing temps after a historic warm spell, but also the long range models are starting to see the possibility of more than just April chill around these parts.

SNOWIEST APRILS ON RECORD FROM NOAA SITE:

We need to watch closely the time period around next Sunday and again late the following week, as unusually cold air may coincide with storminess to really make for a miserable time, especially when you consider twofold; one, the vegetation is in "May" mode and damage from snowfall would set back the growing season (already, we're looking at a hard freeze tomorrow night and possibly tuesday night).

Second, many people will be shocked at the turnaround from exceptionally warm to downright wintry.

But if you've been following here, you are not all that shocked at any of this, as videos and write-ups have been reporting that something big might be in the works for April; and in a worst case, we may find ourselves with another significant, out-of-season snowfall (like the October Halloween Storm), where damage to trees is a real risk.

Until then, the message is clear....FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS BEGINNING AROUND NOON TOMORROW, PREPARE FOR MID WINTER-LIKE TEMPS, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, AND 30S AND UPPER 20S DURING THE DAY TIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY.