MORE ON THIS WEEK'S WEATHER

what else did you expect it to be about ???

First, the attempt at a video today was unsuccessful. There is a software issue which is being worked on, and videos should resume sometime this week.

The snowfall from the Wednesday storm was impressive, with records being shattered all over the area.

And the snow cover from Sandy and this past week's storm still remains!

Moving ahead, the warmth for Sunday and Monday is on, with a mild Veterans' Day on tap.

With such warm temps over the cooler ocean waters, some dense fog is possible Sunday night away from the city. In spite of the overall warmth of Monday, low clouds and fog may have a tough time burning off. 

The temps from Intellicast vs the newer version are fairly similar, but they have trended lower for Tuesday.

Old forecast from Nov 7

New one from Today:

That's because the timing of the rainfall is being adjusted to faster; expect periods of light to moderate rain from late monday night into Tuesday morning, before clearing takes place Tuesday night and beyond (at least through Friday). The rainfall should average .25-.50 through the period. 

Behind the front Tuesday afternoon, winds should pick up, making Tuesday evening a pretty chilly one. 

Lurking for the Thanksgiving week is a reconfiguration of the pattern. The signals are starting to hint at an important storm around the 22nd. 

INCREDIBLE...

A REPRIEVE FROM A PUNISHING TEN DAYS OF WEATHER

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: HIGH

1. Winds relax and skies clear through Thursday night, as the surprise November snowstorm pulls away. Second time in a year that snow fell in a big way before December 1st, which is technically the start of meteorological winter.

Accuweather Slide shows the pattern change coming:

2. TEMPS: Upper 40s/low 50s Friday, but then widespread 50s Saturday. Temps climb even higher Sunday-Tuesday, with readings near and above 60.

3. PRECIP: Risk of a few showers Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a cold front swings through.

4. No substantial air mass change Wednesday/Thursday, as temps return to near normal (upper 40s/low50s)

intellicast temps:

5. Overview here was very good on the twin storms (Sandy and this week's nor'easter), with lead-times for both events around 8 days. However, the storm this week produced much more snow/frozen precip than advertised here.

NO TWO WAYS ABOUT IT, A WINTER STORM IS IN PROGRESS!

The storm talked about since last Tuesday on this blog has come with an unexpected wintry fury (or flurry if you like). The storm's eastward track has allowed colder and colder air on its western and northern flank to filter down and produce mostly snow across the NYC metro area and points east and north. The weather service issued a winter weather advisory for the five boroughs around 1pm, and the snow has gotten heavier since that time. Temps continue to fall at this hour, with Central Park reporting 32 degrees at 4pm, with heavy snow!!

The radar shows the axis of heaviest snows over NYC/Nassau/Southern CT.

Expect the snow to continue through at least midnight, with additional light accumulations possible after midnight.  Many areas will be able to report a lot of 2, 3 and 4 inch amounts!

ACCUWEATHER SNOW MAP

it is not out of the question that some places can see around 6" of snow before all is said and done late tonight.

Clearly, the overview here was grossly underdone on the prospect of snow in the coastal tri state area.

another overview coming tomorrow. Things are about to settle down as advertised.

MID WEEK NOR'EASTER; SAD, BUT TRUE

TIMING: NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

SUMMARY OF FORECAST PERIOD: A low pressure system will develop in the gulf states and reach our area wednesday. the storm will intensify into a rather powerful coastal storm wednesday afternoon.

The worst of the weather will last a good 10-12 hours in any one location from wednesday afternoon through thursday morning. The mid week storm will not be as strong as the ferocious storm of last week, but it will have the power to threaten some power problems as well as delay the overall clean-up efforts. Additionally, the threat of coastal flooding will recommence on the very vulnerable eastern New Jersey coastline.

Expect windy conditions to linger into a good part of Thursday before slackening.

After the next storm, the pattern relaxes, the temps warm up and overall, we will get a prolonged respite from any coastal storms through much of the week of 11/12.

Until then, hold tight.


regular overview should be out for thursday.