SPRING ARRIVES IN NAME ONLY THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS

1. Talk of pre-St. Patrick's day precip is overdone, as only VERY light rain/snow could fall on the big parade during the day; higher chances are over southern NYC and the coast, but amounts will be pesky. Highs near 40. Light winds during the day, but becoming a bit breezy at night tomorrow night, with temps droping into the low 30s.

NOAA products show about a tenth of an inch of liquid falling tomorrow. 

2. Sunday into Monday morning are dry, than a soaking rainfall will encompass the region. Temps quite raw and chilly for this time of year Monday night into Tuesday, which is when the bulk of the rain will fall. Continued highs near 40 at best through the period.

WPC.gov shows potential for 1-2 inches of rain Monday night/Tuesda

3. Higher elevations north and west of NYC stand the best shot at mixed precip through the entire storm for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Accu-weather

4. Potential is high for a period of very strong winds to develop Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning; highest gusts could reach 50mph near the coast and in higher elevations.

5. Dry Wednesday-Friday, but temps will struggle to reach the mid-40s through the end of next week. Pattern remains bottled up and blocky, which will mean the persistent pattern of cold and storminess will continue until it breaks down.

A COLD ST PATRICKS DAY; WINTERS' GRIP WILL BE SLOW TO FADE AWAY

First though, while the rain will build in Monday night, the steadiest and heaviest rains will come during Tuesday, as the timing of the system heading towards us is a bit slower than originally thought.

A risk of an afternoon shower will still be possible on Wednesday, as very cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere combines with daytime heating; this set-up is common in late winter and early spring and typically poses the greatest risk of a shower away from the coastal sections and with higher elevations.

Thereafter, cold, dry weather takes charge once again, as the false spring of the last few days is wiped out.

Intellicast

The next chance for a significant storm system comes early the week of the 17th (the time to watch would be Monday through Wednesday). If it pans out to its fullest potential, parts or all of the region could see a significant winter storm right around the time of the Vernal Equinox.

Euro model shows a strong signal for an east coast storm around 3/20

In short, winter is not done for at least another week to ten days, and one more storm could make it so that March has a decent chance to be our snowiest month for the entire winter of 2012-13.