JANUARY WARM SPELL REACHES HIGH TIDE THIS WEEKEND

Temps: Temps are at their peak Saturday-Sunday, with near 60 degrees possible in the urban hot-spots. Widespread 50s elsewhere during the day are likely; this is some 15-20 degrees higher than normal, mid-January levels. Some daily high temp records are in jeopardy for Saturday and Sunday.

 RECORD HIGHS FOR 1/12 AND 1/13

CENTRAL PARK

1/12: 64 (1890)

1/13: 68 (1932)

NEWARK

1/12: 61 (1975)
1/13: 70 (1932)

LA GUARDIA

1/12: 60 1975)
1/13: 62 (1995)

JFK

1/12: 60 (1975)
1/13: 57 (1995)

ISLIP

1/12: 58 (1995)
1/13: 60 (1995)

Intellicast.com

Rain: Friday has some pesky light rain around in the afternoon, lasting on and off through the early morning hours of Saturday. Dry Saturday and much of Sunday with mostly cloudy skies; risk of a few showers Sunday night/Monday, with more organized rainfall Tuesday through Wednesday. Frontal boundary stalling close to the region means slow improvements through Wednesday.

 

The coming cold: Temps return to near normal January levels next Wednesday-Thursday and beyond. More typical mid-winter temps settle in, but core of the brutally cold weather will stay to our west through 1/20. Potential storm around 1/19 could mean frozen inland precip, but rain at the coast. More active wintry pattern should recommence through late month into February, as the overall pattern re-sets to the one which (eventually) settled in for late December. See previous post and embedded links on this.

GENERALLY MILD, BUT DON'T COUNT WINTER OUT!

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY-HIGH

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY-SUNDAY-LOW

The pervious overview is basically on track.

 A stretch of benign January weather is underway. Temperatures for the week will average well above their normal levels, which SHOULD be around 35-40 degrees during the day. Generally, this pattern is expected to continue into much of next week, before a sharp turn to colder weather arrives sometime around January 20. 

A storm system that was supposed to impact the area for the end of the week is being pushed back (timing-wise) for Friday into Saturday. Even though the timing remains in question, the late week storm will, in effect, serve to mark the beginning of a stretch of an overall increase in precip (mostly in the form of rain until 1/20) through the third week of January. 

cpc.noaa.gov

At this point, the intrigue as to whether Old Man Winter will make a comeback is not in doubt, as most long range forecasters are touting its return. 

weather.com

However, the severity is the nagging question; will we see a wintry onslaught in the coldest part of the year, which lasts into much of February, or will it come in waves, giving us opportunities for breaks to take place? Moreover, another scenario might involve the cold overwhelming the pattern so much, that it virtually stymies any prolific storms from coming out of the gulf of Mexico, thus sparing us of any appreciable snow/wintry precipitation for the remainder of the month. 

More later this week.......