PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY-HIGH
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY-SUNDAY-LOW
The pervious overview is basically on track.
A stretch of benign January weather is underway. Temperatures for the week will average well above their normal levels, which SHOULD be around 35-40 degrees during the day. Generally, this pattern is expected to continue into much of next week, before a sharp turn to colder weather arrives sometime around January 20.
A storm system that was supposed to impact the area for the end of the week is being pushed back (timing-wise) for Friday into Saturday. Even though the timing remains in question, the late week storm will, in effect, serve to mark the beginning of a stretch of an overall increase in precip (mostly in the form of rain until 1/20) through the third week of January.
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| cpc.noaa.gov |
At this point, the intrigue as to whether Old Man Winter will make a comeback is not in doubt, as most long range forecasters are touting its return.
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| weather.com |
However, the severity is the nagging question; will we see a wintry onslaught in the coldest part of the year, which lasts into much of February, or will it come in waves, giving us opportunities for breaks to take place? Moreover, another scenario might involve the cold overwhelming the pattern so much, that it virtually stymies any prolific storms from coming out of the gulf of Mexico, thus sparing us of any appreciable snow/wintry precipitation for the remainder of the month.
More later this week.......
Here are the highest January temperatures for the years from 2000-2012 at NYC:
1/7/12....62
1/9/08....64
1/6/07....72*
1/30/06..64
1-14/05..66
1/29/02..69
1/3/00....64
* All-Time Record High Temp for Jan
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