Wednesday, November 27, 2013

WATCHING A COASTAL STORM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...



Behind our pre-Thanksgiving storm, the weather will be quiet, but cold for late this week into the weekend.

Intellicast


By Saturday and Saturday night, a frontal zone will draw near the region, adding plenty of cloud cover by Saturday night into Sunday. Some very light rain or a rain/snow mix is possible Saturday overnight into Sunday; areas to the east of NYC stand the best chance at seeing any precip during this time frame. Chances for light precip will persist into Monday, but amounts and location of the rain will be very spotty.

Meanwhile, a more organized low pressure will begin to take shape along the frontal zone to our south early next week. It is here where the forecast will depend on the track of this low. If there is an impact at all, the prospects for mainly rain in the city and coast are high, but as you get further inland, the chances for more significant frozen precip do exist if the timing and track are just right.

By Wednesday, skies clear out, but it'll be breezy in the wake of the departing storm. Temps for  Wednesday and Thursday will be near their normal levels for this time of year.

There are signs in the long term which point to a rather cold, stormy December in the making.

The bulk of the cold will be confined to our west, but will try and press in from the northern plains states. This should aid in the development of storms where the warmth (over the southern states) and cold intersect.

More to come Saturday or Sunday.


Sunday, November 24, 2013

COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE 2002 ON THE MENU

1985 and 1994 also had highs of 41 degrees


1. Coastal storm will disrupt travel Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Heavy rain and gusty winds likely during this time frame, with strong gales out of the south. Mild and breezy. Much needed rainfall in most areas will average 2 inches, possibly more.

Add caption
2. After the storm clears, it's cold again! We could crack the top ten coldest Thanksgivings in the last 50 plus years at Central Park. Blustery Thursday; Big parade may have problems with the various floats, which may have to be sidelined due to winds gusting to 40mph!

Intellicast


3. Long term trends point towards below normal temps to open December. With storm track becoming evident, prospects for an above normal snow cover nationwide will continue. However, no El Nino/La Nina signal is expected through the winter, which will complicate any shot at clues beyond a week or two as to how harsh the winter will be.