DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM WILL POUND THE TRI STATE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

TIMING: Late Sunday through Tuesday afternoon, with the worst impacts Monday throughTuesday morning.

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

SYNOPSIS OF FORECAST PERIOD: Remnants of Hurricane Sandy will combine with another low pressure system to create a large, slow-moving and very intense Atlantic cyclone. This center of the storm system will push north along the eastern seaboard, before being shunted to the west and north, in the vicinity of coastal New Jersey. The track of this storm is very rare, and it, combined with the shear size of the wind radius, will present multiple major problems around our area early next week and quite possibly beyond.

WINDS: the duration of the strongest winds may last 18-24 hours in any one location, which presents a significant threat of power outages and tree damage. This extended period of high winds for any one location is most likely to occur between early Monday through Tuesday afternoon.

Sustained winds will steadily increase to between 15-25mph Sunday into Sunday night. winds will mount to between 40-50mph Monday afternoon, with wind gusts Monday evening into Tuesday morning likely to be at their strongest levels (near or over 70mph for most locations), particularly near the coast.  Winds will only slowly abate Tuesday.

RAIN: Rainfall will begin to encroach upon the area as early as Saturday night, and slowly increase in intensity through Sunday. The potential for several inches of rain will markedly increase by Monday during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts may exceed 5 inches south and west of NYC. A storm total of 2-4 inches is likely, with the heaviest rainfall Monday and Monday night. 

COASTAL FLOODING: widespread coastal flooding will reach at least moderate levels on the southern shore of Long Island, New York City and eastern New Jersey. The duration of the waves and the wind will make for three successive tide cycles being affected adversely. A storm surge of 4-8 feet is likely, but the extent of the flooding is highly dependent on the exact track of landfall, as well as timing of the surge and the tide cycle.

A full moon will exacerbate high tide levels Monday and Tuesday morning, leading to the very high likelihood of major beach erosion and tidal flooding.

High Tide/Marine Hazard Information for specific locations. 

ACCUWEATHER coastal flood threat map:

PREPARATIONS: Now is the time to prepare for a long duration coastal storm.

The storm will last longer and be much stronger than a garden-varity fall nor'easter; similar storms types are The Perfect Storm in 1991 and December 1992.

People should prepare for the possibility of loss of utilities (especially power) for several days.

Very cold, brisk weather will filter in behind the storm; preparations for loss of heating utilities should be strongly considered.

Stay tuned to the latest information on local television, radio or NOAA weather radio.

NOAA NEW YORK NWS SLIDE ON STORM

This slide was just created by the National Weather Service in Upton NY. it is why this overview has been so adamant to you, the viewer, to pay close attention to this storm since Sunday...

EAST COAST STORM SCENARIOS ...TWO OPTIONS

The Sunday-Tuesday storm is very unique in two respects:

First, rarely does a storm  morph from a hurricane into a powerful, nor'easter type storm, and maintain a huge envelope of strong winds AWAY from the center of the storm.

here's a quote from the National Hurricane Center:


"...regardless... whether Sandy is officially tropical or post-tropical at landfall will have little bearing on the impacts..."

Second, rarely does a storm hook in from the west after traveling  north along the eastern seaboard. Such a track would drive a huge storm surge just to the north of where the center hits the coast.

The forecast problem ultimately comes down to the track, which has been narrowed down to between Wilmington DE, to Sandy Hook NJ. The "escape" from a very bad storm for our area would be if the storm tracked SOUTH of Delaware, which, while still possible, is not likely, according to all the official forecasts from both public and private sources.


SCENARIO ONE:

SCENARIO TWO:

NHC CURRENT FORECAST TRACK

More Later...

VIDEO: UPDATE ON THE SUN-TUES STORM

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD-MEDIUM

LATE WEEKEND STORM COULD BE A DANGEROUS, DISRUPTIVE EVENT

Predictability of forecast period SAT-MON remains LOW

The previous overview from Sunday is basically on track through Saturday.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: All along, the key interaction late this coming weekend between the tropical system (Sandy) and the incoming strong low pressure trough from the mid-west have been and will be  crucial to the evolution of the Sunday-Monday storm. Right now, the stakes are unusually high because a set up like this, while not etched in stone by any means, can lead to an extraordinarily powerful, slow-moving and far-reaching storm; the affects of such a storm would cause widespread damaging winds , heavy to excessive rains and major coastal flooding/beach erosion. The camp of numerical weather models that were showing an extreme scenario have not wavered much  from their depictions since Sunday’s write up, so this is a cause for some concern . Similar instances where this complex interaction led to a severe outcome include, but are not limited to Hurricane Hazel of 1954, Hurricane Ginny in 1963, The Perfect Storm of 1991 and to a lesser extent, the December 1992 nor’easter.

NOAA MOUNT HOLLY, NJ BRIEFING ON THE STORM, TUESDAY OCTOBER 23^RD

THE WAY OUT: the prospects of a storm veering completely out to sea, with little, to no impact upon the tri-state area, while still possible, have lessened since Sunday’s write-up. However, just as plausible to the historic storm taking shape would be a scenario where a storm does indeed develop, but does not incorporate (or phase) all of the weather systems fully. In other words, we experience a typical fall nor’easter, but nothing too severe. This also is portrayed in some of the available guidance as an alternative to the more portentous solutions, and as of now, is the more likely outcome at this time.

THE BOTTOM LINE: It is very important to monitor the weather situation for the next several days. Those with late weekend travel plans of any kind, whether by land or by air, need to be especially attentive, as the full potential of this storm would have far-reaching consequences for several days. For property owners, the timing of the storm would be for late in the weekend, so there would be some time to take preparedness action should the need eventually arise. Lastly, It should be noted that due to the astronomically high tides coinciding with ANY type of close passage of a storm this weekend, there is a good chance of at least some coastal flooding occurring on the more venerable south and east facing shorelines Sunday into Monday

Stay Tuned

More on Thursday

WARMTH TO DOMINATE THE LAST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER

COLD HALLOWEEN WEEK LIKELY, WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY-HIGH

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY-TUESDAY-LOW

1. After starting off cool, October will likely end up being a warmer-than-average month overall, with drier-than-average conditions.

2. TEMPS: mild is the rule through Saturday, with highs near 70 most days.  Cooler Wed/Thursday, with clouds prevailing and onshore winds leveling temps to near normal (low 60s). Late-week temp spike offers the very real possibility of temps soaring into the mid to upper 70s Friday for NYC and points north and west. 50s at night.

3. PRECIP: Best chance area-wide is Tuesday night, with showers a good bet. Otherwise, it's mainly dry, with only a risk of a shower wed/thursday. Wild-card will be late week interaction with system in Caribbean and oncoming cold front for Sunday into Monday.

4. Details are unknown, but said interaction with a developing tropical system, the clash of true winter temps versus the exiting summer-like air-mass and a full moon may be the ingredients needed to produce a very powerful east coast storm in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Bears very close watch.

5. Cold Halloween week likely, with temps in the low 50s to end October and open November. Cold air will persist through the first weekend of November.

PROJECTED PATTERN NEXT WEEK SHOWS COLD AIR LOCKED IN

6. Daylight savings will end the weekend of November 2-4.