First, rarely does a storm morph from a hurricane into a powerful, nor'easter type storm, and maintain a huge envelope of strong winds AWAY from the center of the storm.
here's a quote from the National Hurricane Center:
"...regardless... whether Sandy is officially tropical or post-tropical at landfall will have little bearing on the impacts..."
Second, rarely does a storm hook in from the west after traveling north along the eastern seaboard. Such a track would drive a huge storm surge just to the north of where the center hits the coast.
The forecast problem ultimately comes down to the track, which has been narrowed down to between Wilmington DE, to Sandy Hook NJ. The "escape" from a very bad storm for our area would be if the storm tracked SOUTH of Delaware, which, while still possible, is not likely, according to all the official forecasts from both public and private sources.
SCENARIO ONE:
SCENARIO TWO:
NHC CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
More Later...
Kevin, this is so professional and well done. You have us prepared. Thank you
ReplyDeletethanks very much
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