DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM WILL POUND THE TRI STATE AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

TIMING: Late Sunday through Tuesday afternoon, with the worst impacts Monday throughTuesday morning.

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

SYNOPSIS OF FORECAST PERIOD: Remnants of Hurricane Sandy will combine with another low pressure system to create a large, slow-moving and very intense Atlantic cyclone. This center of the storm system will push north along the eastern seaboard, before being shunted to the west and north, in the vicinity of coastal New Jersey. The track of this storm is very rare, and it, combined with the shear size of the wind radius, will present multiple major problems around our area early next week and quite possibly beyond.

WINDS: the duration of the strongest winds may last 18-24 hours in any one location, which presents a significant threat of power outages and tree damage. This extended period of high winds for any one location is most likely to occur between early Monday through Tuesday afternoon.

Sustained winds will steadily increase to between 15-25mph Sunday into Sunday night. winds will mount to between 40-50mph Monday afternoon, with wind gusts Monday evening into Tuesday morning likely to be at their strongest levels (near or over 70mph for most locations), particularly near the coast.  Winds will only slowly abate Tuesday.

RAIN: Rainfall will begin to encroach upon the area as early as Saturday night, and slowly increase in intensity through Sunday. The potential for several inches of rain will markedly increase by Monday during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts may exceed 5 inches south and west of NYC. A storm total of 2-4 inches is likely, with the heaviest rainfall Monday and Monday night. 

COASTAL FLOODING: widespread coastal flooding will reach at least moderate levels on the southern shore of Long Island, New York City and eastern New Jersey. The duration of the waves and the wind will make for three successive tide cycles being affected adversely. A storm surge of 4-8 feet is likely, but the extent of the flooding is highly dependent on the exact track of landfall, as well as timing of the surge and the tide cycle.

A full moon will exacerbate high tide levels Monday and Tuesday morning, leading to the very high likelihood of major beach erosion and tidal flooding.

High Tide/Marine Hazard Information for specific locations. 

ACCUWEATHER coastal flood threat map:

PREPARATIONS: Now is the time to prepare for a long duration coastal storm.

The storm will last longer and be much stronger than a garden-varity fall nor'easter; similar storms types are The Perfect Storm in 1991 and December 1992.

People should prepare for the possibility of loss of utilities (especially power) for several days.

Very cold, brisk weather will filter in behind the storm; preparations for loss of heating utilities should be strongly considered.

Stay tuned to the latest information on local television, radio or NOAA weather radio.