Predictability of forecast period SAT-MON remains LOW
The previous overview from Sunday is basically on track through Saturday.
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: All along, the key interaction late this coming weekend between the tropical system (Sandy) and the incoming strong low pressure trough from the mid-west have been and will be crucial to the evolution of the Sunday-Monday storm. Right now, the stakes are unusually high because a set up like this, while not etched in stone by any means, can lead to an extraordinarily powerful, slow-moving and far-reaching storm; the affects of such a storm would cause widespread damaging winds , heavy to excessive rains and major coastal flooding/beach erosion. The camp of numerical weather models that were showing an extreme scenario have not wavered much from their depictions since Sunday’s write up, so this is a cause for some concern . Similar instances where this complex interaction led to a severe outcome include, but are not limited to Hurricane Hazel of 1954, Hurricane Ginny in 1963, The Perfect Storm of 1991 and to a lesser extent, the December 1992 nor’easter.
THE WAY OUT: the prospects of a storm veering completely out to sea, with little, to no impact upon the tri-state area, while still possible, have lessened since Sunday’s write-up. However, just as plausible to the historic storm taking shape would be a scenario where a storm does indeed develop, but does not incorporate (or phase) all of the weather systems fully. In other words, we experience a typical fall nor’easter, but nothing too severe. This also is portrayed in some of the available guidance as an alternative to the more portentous solutions, and as of now, is the more likely outcome at this time.
THE BOTTOM LINE: It is very important to monitor the weather situation for the next several days. Those with late weekend travel plans of any kind, whether by land or by air, need to be especially attentive, as the full potential of this storm would have far-reaching consequences for several days. For property owners, the timing of the storm would be for late in the weekend, so there would be some time to take preparedness action should the need eventually arise. Lastly, It should be noted that due to the astronomically high tides coinciding with ANY type of close passage of a storm this weekend, there is a good chance of at least some coastal flooding occurring on the more venerable south and east facing shorelines Sunday into Monday
Stay Tuned
More on Thursday
No comments:
Post a Comment