WARMTH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS...

1. Record warmth from this weekend will be replaced by cooler temps for Tuesday through Thursday. However, temps will still run well above normal levels from where they should be for this time of year, with highs in the lower 50s for the majority of the work week ahead. 

2. Downpours and a few thunderstorms are a good bet for Monday night into Tuesday. Expect a 6-8 hour window of rain from about 4pm onwards Monday night into early Tuesday before it clears out. The rainfall deficit will be chipped away, but only slightly from this cold frontal passage.

Tropical Tidbits: GFS forecast for 7pm Monday

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3. Dry for mid-week. Windy on Tuesday, with cooler temps (but still above normal).

4. Showers develop for Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly weekend settles in next weekend, with highs in the 40s. Some rain/wet snow could clip the region Friday as a storm develops off of the New England coast and heads out to sea.

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5. Temps quickly rebound into "above normal" territory for Christmas week. Any shots of cold look to be transient, with storms staying confined mostly to the western states.

ANOTHER QUIET WEEK OVERALL

The active southern storm track which is associated with El Nino continues to show prominence over the southern and western states. Subtropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean will, by and large, continue to fuel systems across the Lower-48 States.

Intellicast

However, at least for this week, the storms won't be able to turn up the coast. Rather, they will get blocked as they come up with the result being a fairly dry week for the area.

NOAA: Total precipitation through Friday

Moreover, bitter cold air remains trapped in Canada; this is due to the overall configuration of the jet stream.



As the cold intensifies over the next few weeks, the active southern storm track will ultimately lead to many opportunities for substantial winter storms; but this process will be slow to evolve.