GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS WE OFFICIALLY HEAD INTO FALL

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: HIGH

1. Dry through Saturday evening, with temps in the 70s. Warmest day is Saturday ahead of the next front. Somewhat chilly night Thursday night/Friday, with lows in the 50s. Some 40s may show up in the normally cooler spots outside of the city

NOAA LOW TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING:

2. Risk of a few showers from Saturday evening through Sunday early morning, as another shot of cooler, autumn-like air is reinforced for Sunday afternoon through Tuesday before things warm to the mid 70s again for mid week next week.

INTELLICAST TEMPS:

3. Risk of a shower for Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves through. Overall, conditions are dry through the period, with rainfall amounts the next seven days averaging less than a half inch.

4. Yesterday’s storm was well predicted by the various forecasts leading up to the event. One of the more robust, widespread weather events of 2012.

TUESDAY STORM HIGHLIGHTS

here are some fine tuned ideas on Tuesday's storm:

In a year where we've not seen many spectacular, widespread weather events around here, this one could be one of the more disruptive. The timing is such that the evening rush hour on Tuesday could be the most impacted, BUT there's still a good shot that the heaviest activity waits until most people are home.

As a side note, the all-important Yankees' game may be in jeopardy

Things continue to look unsettled in the long term. The cool weather will dominate the central and eastern states through the next ten days. This will provide the opportunity to introduce more showery weather into the picture as early as Thursday and Friday, particularly for areas NYC and points to the east. This will need updating by Tuesday night.

Additionally, an area of low pressure currently near Puerto Rico will approach the eastern Gulf of Mexico by late next weekend, and could aid in the development of more heavy rainfall by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week (the week of the 25th).

more on Tuesday