UNSETTLED, BUT MILD PATTERN THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM


HIGHLIGHTS:

1 Previous overview on track through Thursday.

2. Friday starts to get unsettled and damp, but the milder air works in as well. Risk of a few light showers north of NYC Friday, then spreading east by Friday night.

3. Periods of rainfall for the weekend, especially late Saturday, Sunday night, then again Monday afternoon/night with a strong cold front. Very mild. Could even see a stray thunderstorm Monday with highs in the upper 50s and a strong front nearby. Cooler day Sunday, with temps in the upper 40s.

4. Tuesday through Thursday: Much colder, but things clear out. Temps essentially around normal December levels.

INTELLICAST TEMPS SHOW THE COOL-DOWN

DISCUSSION: After a brief punch of cold from Wednesday night (tonight) through Thursday night, temps will start to climb once again. However, the renewed surge of mild air will come with a price; periods of rainfall will ensue from late Friday through much of Monday night, before another burst of cold weather lunges in for Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The situation is reminiscent of the opening of last December, and for that matter, much of winter 2011-2012  (short, sharp shots of cold in a sea of warmth).

But don't let it fool you into a false sense of security (yet).

Going into December, the consensus for this month was that cold air would decidedly win out by the tenth; now, indications are that seasonal temps will begin to only gradually infiltrate by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week (around the 12th).

 Moreover, while an uptick in rainfall seems likely, the overall pattern is not conducive to significant wintry precip through the 13th. But the overall message put forth here (obviously with help from the pros), even though delayed by about five to six days, still holds sway; increasingly cold, stormy weather should take hold and the threat of a harsh period of winter weather right around the heart of the holiday season is something to keep in mind as we go forward.

NEXT WEEK'S STORM COULD GET THE (SNOW) BALL ROLLING ON WINTER

The record books will be filled up today, as spring-like warmed encased much of the lower 48 states. Chicago and DC had temps in the low 70s, and here in nyc, we managed to touch 60. Another day of near-record warmth is on the way tomorrow, before the expected turnaround comes in Wednesday morning. 

The Weather Channel

Temps will start falling off rapidly by Wednesday afternoon; I'd be tempted to just bring the heavy jacket for work Wednesday, as our high for the day may very well be realized before noon. 

Next week's storm will come through the area Sunday or Monday. While it will most certainly bring rain to the area, the storm itself may be the trigger that can start a more persistent cold/stormy regime around the country. We were looking for the change to take place around the 6th, but this may be delayed for a few days longer, more like the 10th. 

More tomorrow.