Tuesday, October 16, 2012

WEEKEND BEGINS WET, BUT NO NEED TO FRET

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM


The storm system for the end of the week is taking shape; the models are coming into better agreement and as such, are pointing to a wet Friday before things start to clear out Saturday. The idea of the storm lagging behind for much of the weekend is being discounted now, as enough of a push upstream will allow for slow clearing through Saturday and Sunday.

NOAA POPS FRIDAY 



Rainfall on Friday looks to be widespread and long-lasting. The higher amounts look to fall north and west of NYC, where over two inches of rainfall can materialize. However, most areas look to receive half that much, with generally around an inch of rain expected at this time. The long duration of the rainfall will mitigate the prospect of any urban flooding.
 
As discussed earlier, since the Friday freeze-out, this is a somewhat mild pattern overall. 

INTELLICAST TEMPS NEXT SEVEN DAYS



The first part of October ran behind the normal monthly level for Central Park, but has since rebounded.  Based on the data, we should anticipate that these types of fairly seasonable – and sometimes milder readings -- will persist into much of next week.
 
NOAA 8-14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOK


10/24-10/30



However, waiting in the wings is a very robust cold pocket, which will make inroads into the western states next week. This air mass will likely spread out (albeit slowly) and threaten to reach our area by the last week of October.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

A RATHER CALM WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE STORMY WEEKEND...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

1. Record cold filtered all the way to the coastal plain on Friday night/Saturday morning. Healthy frost transpired inland, with temps in the 20s.




2.  Few changes to the last video/overview. Exception would be to adjust timing of rainfall for Monday later; instead of sunday night, rain will move through, albeit fairly light, for Monday afternoon and evening.

NOAA New York Facebook page:


3. Tues-Friday are tranquil, with temps in the 60s. Lows in the upper 40s/low 50s. Breezy on Tuesday.

4.  Potential for a prolonged rainfall for the weekend. Slow moving storm system with tropical input could spell flooding rains.  Slow clearing into early next week, with cool temps. Will need updating late this week.

5. Siberian snow cover has markedly increased in the last two weeks. Implications are that cold temps will be much more prevalent on our side of the world.