WEEKEND WEATHER SNAPSHOT

1. Rain persists today and tonight, with highest amounts near the coastal plain. Windy. Rain tapers off late Friday night.  Drought-denting rains will remain well to our south. Previous posts expressed here about the rainfall this weekend will prove to be overstated.

NOAA price forecast now through 7pm Monday 

2. Risidual showers from time to time on Saturday and again Sunday with breezy,  raw conditions persisting through the weekend. Temps will be held firm in the 50s and 60s with a chilly northeast flow.

3. Minor coastal flooding should be a problem at the times of high tide through early next week. Overall pattern as well as distant Hurricane Joaquin are the contributing factors.

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4. Slow improvement early next week, with clouds diminishing by late Monday and Tuesday.

VIDEO: UPDATE ON WEEKEND WEATHER AND JOAQUIN

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HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...JOAQUIN'S IMPACT STILL UNKNOWN

6:10am

EXCESSIVE RAINS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND

SYNOPSIS: A highly complex pattern will result in continued unsettled weather well before the brunt of Joaquin makes its closest approach on Sunday and Monday; the overall impact of Joaquin to the region is highly uncertain and updates will be needed.

current sea-surface temperatures

The key to the forecast late in the weekend lies with the interaction between the tropical system (Joaquin) and the incoming strong low pressure trough from the Midwest. Regardless, the overall set-up from now through the weekend will lead to an extended period of coastal flooding, beach erosion and heavy rain. 

Over the last few cycles of model runs, projected amounts of rainfall have markedly increased for the period, not including what has already fallen on Wednesday.  All told, if the current trends continue, moderate drought which ensued over the summer months would be virtually wiped out with this week's rains alone;  too much rain could prove overwhelming for some rivers and streams.

Northeast winds which have already developed will continue through the weekend, regardless of the storm's eventual path.  Wind speeds could be able to mount to over 50mph at the coast, particularly late in the weekend. This prolonged northeasterly fetch will constantly push water towards our shorelines for many days.

THE DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:

Wednesday night/Thursday:  periods of rain.

Thursday night/Friday: Classic set-up for heavy rain begins with frontal boundary draping itself over the region. Moderate to heavy rain at times, starting in eastern areas, then coming westward and overspreading the region.  Amounts during this time frame will range from 1-3 inches, with locally excessive amounts due to the tropical supply of moisture.

Friday night through Sunday: Increasing winds and periods of rain, with rain heavy at times. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible.

Sunday/Monday: Worst case scenario would be that the brunt of  Joaquin hits all or part of the area with heavy to excessive rains, damaging winds and tidal flooding, but this is highly uncertain at this time.

Temps remain in the 60s through the forecast period.

stay tuned.....

ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT A SULTRY SEPTEMBER

1. Increasing clouds tonight with drizzle developing late. Warm on Monday. Some light rain should move in by late day into the evening with areas west of the Hudson seeing it first. Spotty light rain continues through Monday night into early Tuesday.

2. By Tuesday, temps surge into the 70s once again. At  night, a cold front with ample tropical moisture moves through with moderate to heavy rains and a stray thunderstorm. Front slows down as it works its way through, meaning showers will still be around through most of Wednesday morning before ending. Around an inch of rain is likely with this feature.

3.  Dry for late week, but breezy and much cooler temps beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.

4. Meanwhile,  a new area of low pressure will strengthen over the mid-Atlantic states late in the week. Complex series of events including some influence from the tropics yet again, could result in a soaking nor'easter for the region for much of Saturday and Saturday night. Coastal flooding, heavy rains and strong winds are the main threats. Astronomical tide will have peaked, which might mitigate the extent of the coastal flooding. Bears close watch.

5. Storm may linger for Sunday and Monday, but with more showery rains and some breaks in the clouds. For now, expect damp and dreary weather during this time frame, with slow improvements by Tuesday.