EXCESSIVE RAINS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND

SYNOPSIS: A highly complex pattern will result in continued unsettled weather well before the brunt of Joaquin makes its closest approach on Sunday and Monday; the overall impact of Joaquin to the region is highly uncertain and updates will be needed.

current sea-surface temperatures

The key to the forecast late in the weekend lies with the interaction between the tropical system (Joaquin) and the incoming strong low pressure trough from the Midwest. Regardless, the overall set-up from now through the weekend will lead to an extended period of coastal flooding, beach erosion and heavy rain. 

Over the last few cycles of model runs, projected amounts of rainfall have markedly increased for the period, not including what has already fallen on Wednesday.  All told, if the current trends continue, moderate drought which ensued over the summer months would be virtually wiped out with this week's rains alone;  too much rain could prove overwhelming for some rivers and streams.

Northeast winds which have already developed will continue through the weekend, regardless of the storm's eventual path.  Wind speeds could be able to mount to over 50mph at the coast, particularly late in the weekend. This prolonged northeasterly fetch will constantly push water towards our shorelines for many days.

THE DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:

Wednesday night/Thursday:  periods of rain.

Thursday night/Friday: Classic set-up for heavy rain begins with frontal boundary draping itself over the region. Moderate to heavy rain at times, starting in eastern areas, then coming westward and overspreading the region.  Amounts during this time frame will range from 1-3 inches, with locally excessive amounts due to the tropical supply of moisture.

Friday night through Sunday: Increasing winds and periods of rain, with rain heavy at times. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible.

Sunday/Monday: Worst case scenario would be that the brunt of  Joaquin hits all or part of the area with heavy to excessive rains, damaging winds and tidal flooding, but this is highly uncertain at this time.

Temps remain in the 60s through the forecast period.

stay tuned.....