A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL AUGUST WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM MONDAY-FRIDAY-HIGH

 

A change in the overall pattern will put a lid on the frequent bouts of showers and storms that we’ve been experiencing the past ten days. In fact, a lot of areas will not see much if any rainfall through about Friday of next week. Temps will be kept to near normal levels, as the robust heat pump, which originated from the Southern Plains States for much of late June and July, has essentially been wiped out.

GFS 7-DAY "MEAN" TEMP SHOWS COOL OVER THE PLAINS (Ewall Site)

 And because of the newly configured pattern, air masses which spread over us will have modest humidity values. 

INTELLICAST TEMPS:

INTELLICAST PRECIP

NOAA TEMPS

NOAA DEW POINT chart shows very comfortable values mid-to-late week:

 Lurking in the distance however will be the increasing rumblings from the tropics. The typical peak of the season will begin, and with it, a renewed burst of activity both well out in the Atlantic and in close to our continent will commence.

Overall, the pattern can try to pull in storms that come close to the eastern seaboard, but this scenario is not likely to unfold in any meaningful way until after the 25^th.

DODGING SOME MID-WEEK STORMS THIS WEEK

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH MONDAY

1. Dismal performance by the last overview, as timing of rain fell apart with the first wave coming last Friday around midday, then virtually no precip after! Only consolation was that rainfall amounts verified with torrential downpours this past Friday. Confirmed tornado touched down in Suffolk County Friday afternoon.

2. Humidity increases tomorrow, with showers and storms for areas west of NYC during the afternoon. First batch of storms will dissipate before reaching NYC in the early evening. NYC points east may not see a drop of rain until well into the evening/overnight.

NOAA has west of NYC in a greater risk for severe storms tomorrow as does Accuweather

3. Activity will become numerous for a period between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday for most spots. Heavy rain/storms, then becoming more scattered/isolated after noontime under a canopy of cloudiness. Continued muggy.

4. Thursday, another break from storms and high humidity, but then things will fire up Friday late afternoon west of NYC. Once again, storms will wait to penetrate the NYC region/points east until after dark. Showers will be numerous into Saturday morning. Weekend will be dominated by clouds, but rain chances will be widely scattered from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday. Slow clearing Sunday.

5. TEMPS: NYC running several degrees above normal for the month so far. Projection is for near-to-slightly above normal temps through Friday, then a cool-down in temps for a few days through early next week. Another spike could come after the 24^th.

Intellicast

6.  Aside from June, every month this year has registered “above-average” in terms of the “mean” monthly temp, and August will surely follow the overwhelming trend for 2012.