WINTER STORM LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE NORTHWEST BURBS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

The last time NYC saw two accumulating snows in November occurred in 1938. The November monthly snowfall record is 19.0", which was established in 1898.  

AREA IN GREEN ON MAP IS MIXED PRECIP/MOSTLY RAIN. 
SOURCES ARE WEATHERBELL, ACCUWEATHER, AND WEATHER.GOV/OKX

The track of the storm, plus the warm temps aloft which are forecasted by most of the models, seems to suggest that NYC and the coast are going to see a rain/snow mix, with perhaps a light accumulation. However, as we learned from the November 6th storm, a shift south could put the city in play for more snow. 

Tomorrow, we'll discuss what makes a cold, snowy pattern around these parts (in a large scale sense) and there will be an update on the mid week storm

more later. 

TWO SHOTS OF WINTRY CHILL NEXT TEN DAYS

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: medium

1. Previous post makes the case that winter is already underway in our area. 

 

2. Rainfall chances were a bit overdone here, as storm remained even further off shore this week. Risk of some coastal flooding, albeit minor, remains on the Jersey coast this week through Thursday. Vulnerable beaches left in Sandy’s wake make even minor events more magnified (this will be a theme through winter).

ACCUWEATHER FLIGHT DELAY MAP:

 

3. Mainly quiet through Friday, but a robust cold shot  arrives early Saturday through Saturday night. Coldest weather of the fall season arrives Saturday night, with some light frozen precip possible inland during the day Saturday (probably morning). Very windy and cold Saturday night, with wind-chills in the teens and actual lows in the 20s to near 30.

 

4. Highs struggle to climb into the 40s Sunday, even in the warmer spots! A blustery day for Sunday. 

NOAA DEPICTION OF TEMPS SAT-SUN LOOK OVERDONE

INTELLICAST TEMPS SAT-SUN

5. Monday-Tuesday, temps rebound closer to 50. Fair and tranquil, but then another shot of windy cold weather for the last weekend of November looking likely; storm will be accompanied by rain around the 29th/30th. 

 

6. Video this coming Sunday or Monday will look at last December (2011) versus depiction of long range models for this December (2012). Evidence mounting that a fast start to winter will continue, with uptick in storminess likely for much of the holiday season.

WINTER HAS ALREADY BEGUN...

Since November 1st, we have had three recorded days in Central Park where the average daily temperature has reached positive territory. The cold has won in a rout; the monthly average temp in the Park will, in all likelihood, end up being the coldest month we've seen in these parts since December 2010 (against the monthly averages).

The long term picture is shaping up to be the exact opposite of last December. Prospects for a fast start to winter have not only shown themselves already, but overall, are lining up so that December looks cold and stormy for the east.

Last year, i was only at the point where i did emails. The blog was not created yet. but for the loyal viewers out there, i noted that December 2011 would, in fact, be tame. Now, it appears that we're headed to a big time reversal.

more later.