VIDEO

ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOMS FOR EARLY WEEK

TONIGHT'S RAINFALL LOOKS HEAVY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND...

There can still be some leftover showers tomorrow, but the bulk is done by mid morning the latest, with westernmost sections clearing first. Eastern sections will get the heaviest rainfall, as a coastal storm develops to our south and heads up and out.

OVERALL WEATHER BACKDROP PORTENDS RAINY, COOL SUMMER AND A ROUGH WINTER

Last week, the Accuweather summer forecast came out, and it is in concert with the Weatherbell forecast. 

The implication is for a “normal” summer, with hot shots being transient. A wet June and August is in the works if the predictions from Accuweather hold, with some tropical influence not out of the question. It should be noted that so far, their predictions of drought relief for the northeast states have been good, and it was pointed out here in an earlier post.

  

NOAA SUMMER TEMP FORECAST

Additionally, as far as the tropics are concerned, Weatherbell warns that in-close development to the United States during the hurricane season (as opposed to long-tracked storms like Irene) will be a threat; both outlets predict near-to-below normal overall activity in the tropics.

EXAMPLE OF "IN-CLOSE DEVELOPMENT."  HURRICANE BOB (1991)

EXAMPLE OF "LONG-TRACKED STORM." HURRICANE IRENE (2011)

A number of mitigating factors will put a lid on a cornucopia of named storms.

Looking even further ahead, according to weatherbell, the prospect of a cold, stormy winter is more likely than a benign winter, IF the trends towards a weak El Nino signal were to continue through the summer months. This trend will be watched closely and updated accordingly.

From NASA: THE DELICATE EL NINO BALANCE

"Weak" phase of El Nino often leads to cold, stormy winter in the Northeast. However, if the El Nino develops too strong, storms can usher in warm air, which would overwhelm the pattern and prevent snow from becoming prodigious. 

Finally, the last two years (which saw La Nina dominate the equatorial Pacific waters) led to erratic and inaccurate seasonal forecasting, particularly when it came to winter.  However, the rise of a weak El Nino pattern in the Pacific, and the ebbing of the La Nina pattern in the very same areas, may give weight to overall MORE predictability of weather over the next year.

MID-WEEK MARRED BY MURKINESS, THEN A MAGNIFICENT MOTHERS’ DAY WEEKEND

1. Slow-moving storm system to bring showers and a few thunderstorms beginning towards afternoon Tuesday into early Thursday. Rain should be intermittent, but should add up to a general ½-1-inch amount. Small chance of heavy rain over Long Island Wednesday night from coastal storm, but probability is low for now. Temps low 60s throughout.

 

 

2. Slow clearing Thursday, but rain chances diminish for the most part (except for east of NYC Thursday, where a few showers should linger).

 

Intellicast Probability of Precip:

3. Skies clear for weekend weather, and temps rebound to near 70. Some middle 70s possible for NYC and points west. Afternoon sea breeze for coastal sections. Lows in the 50s.

 

4. Monday needs to be watched for next chance of rain, but probability is low for now.

 

5. Early-season mischief possible in the Caribbean late May/early June according to Weatherbell. Overall pattern may be able to support early tropical storm/hurricane.

WHEN IN DOUBT, LEAVE WHAT'S OUT

Well, since last wednesday, if you've read here, you got the jump on what's becoming another ugly weather week ahead. The heaviest rains look to be Wednesday into Thursday morning, but showers and some thunderstorms will work their way into the picture as soon as early Tuesday morning. The three-day precip totals from HPC are easily over an inch for most

but the question for Wednesday is how heavy will the rain amounts be from a coastal storm, which should at least clip the areas east of NYC with a good soaker.

accuweather.com

As we move through the rest of the year, the prospect of erasing the dry winter is increasingly likely

Expect slow clearing again like last week, but the weekend should be basically okay. A good mothers' day is in the offing.

the bigger post on the winter and summer outlooks are coming tomorrow, along with a video. Sorry for the slowness of the posting.