OVERALL WEATHER BACKDROP PORTENDS RAINY, COOL SUMMER AND A ROUGH WINTER

Last week, the Accuweather summer forecast came out, and it is in concert with the Weatherbell forecast. 

The implication is for a “normal” summer, with hot shots being transient. A wet June and August is in the works if the predictions from Accuweather hold, with some tropical influence not out of the question. It should be noted that so far, their predictions of drought relief for the northeast states have been good, and it was pointed out here in an earlier post.

  

NOAA SUMMER TEMP FORECAST

Additionally, as far as the tropics are concerned, Weatherbell warns that in-close development to the United States during the hurricane season (as opposed to long-tracked storms like Irene) will be a threat; both outlets predict near-to-below normal overall activity in the tropics.

EXAMPLE OF "IN-CLOSE DEVELOPMENT."  HURRICANE BOB (1991)

EXAMPLE OF "LONG-TRACKED STORM." HURRICANE IRENE (2011)

A number of mitigating factors will put a lid on a cornucopia of named storms.

Looking even further ahead, according to weatherbell, the prospect of a cold, stormy winter is more likely than a benign winter, IF the trends towards a weak El Nino signal were to continue through the summer months. This trend will be watched closely and updated accordingly.

From NASA: THE DELICATE EL NINO BALANCE

"Weak" phase of El Nino often leads to cold, stormy winter in the Northeast. However, if the El Nino develops too strong, storms can usher in warm air, which would overwhelm the pattern and prevent snow from becoming prodigious. 

Finally, the last two years (which saw La Nina dominate the equatorial Pacific waters) led to erratic and inaccurate seasonal forecasting, particularly when it came to winter.  However, the rise of a weak El Nino pattern in the Pacific, and the ebbing of the La Nina pattern in the very same areas, may give weight to overall MORE predictability of weather over the next year.