WINTER IS BACK, AND IT’S ON THE ATTACK!

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

HIGHLIGHTS:

1. Moderate snowstorm likely for southern coastal New Jersey Thursday into Thursday night. NYC metro misses the brunt of the storm, but light rain/snow mix is possible thursday night, especially near the southern shores. 

NOAA

2. Cold and dry Friday, with temps near the freezing mark for high temps. Windy friday. Warming up for the weekend, with temps in the 40s Saturday/Sunday.  

3. Turning sharply colder Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the coldest days Tuesday/Wednesday. Temps start out near freezing Monday, but then plunge at night. Teens at night Monday-Wednesday. Sub-freezing high temps likely during Tuesday and Wednesday. Low wind chill values Tuesday/Wednesday (wind chills perhaps near 0 on Tuesday night). 

intellicast

NOAA WInd Chill Forecast Mon/Tues

4. Storm chances beyond tomorrow: Tuesday (have to watch for light/moderate snowfall), then late next week/weekend.

5. Major flu outbreak underway nation-wide. Winter weather makes the flu virus worse. 

Synopsis Of Forecast Period: After a mostly mild January, there is good model agreement on a 3-4 week period (essentially starting now) of wintry weather in all forms. A very brief let up may occur around 1/26-1/30, before another intense cold spell settles in for much of February.  An abrupt ending to winter may occur around the end of February, but the signals are strong that the second half of winter will be much more pronounced than the first half was.

Cold: Temps will average below normal levels starting now through the next ten days. A wave of true arctic air will limit daytime highs in to only the 20s next week (it's likely that Tuesday and Wednesday are the coldest days) with single-digit lows possible Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.  Wind chill values will be even lower.

Storms: Chances for as stormy of a pattern as we had in the last ten days of December (almost three inches of precip, but too warm for substantial snow) are unlikely. However, expect the possibility of at least one or two moderate snowfalls in the next 10-15 days. It is worth noting that our biggest snowfalls usually come in the middle of a stretch of well-below normal temps.

Next update will likely come around midnight, Tuesday morning due to travel.