JANUARY THAW WILL FEATURE TWO POTENT STORMS...

Much like last year at this time, a spike in temps and a respite of sorts will commence for the next 5-7 days.  Unlike last year however, we'll have two storms to deal with, which will spoil what should be a welcomed break from Old Man Winter's icy grip.

On Saturday, rain will overspread the region during a very warm mid afternoon, and become heavy by late afternoon and night. Winds will pick up from the south, with gusts as high as 50mph Saturday night. Urban flooding and Ice Jams along rivers are likely Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday are dry. Winds will remain somewhat elevated on Sunday behind the storm, but temps will still be solidly in the 40s throughout the period from Sunday through Tuesday for hight.

Intellicast

Another cold front and storm system will pass through Tuesday night into a good part of Wednesday. Rain should be the main factor with this storm, along with yet another push of strong southerly winds.

Near - to - below normal readings will build back in late next week. The last ten days of the month look generally stormy and cold for much of the northern U.S.

BEFORE THE TEMPS PLUNGE....

I've experienced few flash freeze events before, and the NWS is not exactly setting things in stone as of their last forecast discussion. It's going to be a "nowcast" situation; we'll have to see how much (and i suspect we'll have a lot) of rainfall and standing water freezing over tomorrow night.

That'll have to be reported by the public. it's not something that i think can be modeled well or, for that matter, forecasted well. I don't know of any models or product, aside from observations, which ascertains how much standing water is on the ground. Best you can hope for is a rapid snow melt between now and tomorrow night at around 8pm. We have temps surging into the 40s and lower 50s right now! Amazing!

So between now and then, I guess there's at least a shot at most of the liquid to melt and/or run off, but it's not likely in my humble opinion. In either case, people need to watch out on Tuesday morning for dangerous black ice, especially while driving. . .