FIRST OCTOBER WEEKEND LOOKS UNSETTLED AND CHILLY

The clearing from the slow-moving system for this week was slower than expected. Also, rain fell heavier than anticipated on Tuesday for areas just north and west of NYC.

 

Thunderstorms will be likely through much of Thursday (from mid-morning through the afternoon), before drying takes place for Thursday night into Friday. Heavy downpours are possible with these storms as they move through.

NOAA TEMPS/PRECIP THROUGH FRIDAY

 

Saturday, areas north and west of NYC will have a shot at a period of rain during the morning, but then a break will commence for Saturday night. Steady, soaking rain will advance in for Sunday, and with it, much cooler temps. We’re looking at a raw, chilly fall day on Sunday, with temps in the 50s to near 60.

NOAA TOTAL PRECIP SAT-MONDAY may come up a bit as we get closer:

 

The temp outlooks from the past overview are still pretty much on track, but are trending cooler for late in the weekend.

OLD INTELLICAST

NEW INTELLICAST

 The period Sunday through Tuesday looks to be the coolest weather we’ve had thus far in the young fall season, but no frost is expected.

BLIZZARD-NAMING BOLOGNA

The weather channel announced that it will start assigning names to winter storms. The purpose, they say, is to raise awareness to impending, big-ticket winter events. The system will be population weighted according to the article. 

This is troubling to me; the whole idea of naming Hurricanes has many different practical reasons. 

To name a few they are:

-Different oceans equal different name lists to avoid confusion

-Different names help track multiple storms

-Hurricanes can last for several weeks at a time and are track-able entities well after their lifespan ends. 

This is hardly the case with winter storms.

Assigning names for winter storms to raise awareness is unnecessary. Instead, they should assign severity scales or categories to storms, which would accomplish the same goal while keeping the science intact. 

A winter storm is very local. For example, oftentimes, it’ll snow inland and rain on the coast. Naming a winter storm will be thought of as hype by people in the rain corridor, and too often, these storms are labeled hype because certain people in certain geographical areas are expecting a bigger storm then they are SUPPOSED to get. The name game will only add to the consternation of it all, especially if the naming “criteria” is based on population weighted situations.

Right now, there is a NESIS scale which was develop to rate Northeast winter storms, but only AFTER the storm has impacted the megalopolis. 

This scale, or something similar to it, should be developed and implemented much like the Saffer-Simpson Scale and the Fujita scale measure hurricanes and tornadoes BEFORE they arrive. Measuring an oncoming winter storm is difficult; but determining its impact is being done already because of a) numerical models predicting the overall intensity of the cyclone and b) the stations all across the country that can measure the storm during its embryonic stages (much like air craft flying into a developing hurricane).

I feel that TWC has the right idea in the long run, but mostly, this strategy is mainly to acquire ratings in my view.  Making people more aware is always a good thing. However, the idea should be more scientific-based according to the overall power of the storm, and using a name might deflect from their overall publicly stated mission of trying to inform. 

OCTOBER STARTS WARM, BUT TURNS COOLER BY THE WEEKEND

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

1. Persistent cloud cover and showers will be pushed out for Monday and much of Tuesday. Temps begin to warm Monday, and continue fairly warm through much of the week.

2. Storm comes out of the south, but waits to get going until Tuesday afternoon/evening. General rainfall of about a half an inch expected, with only minimal flooding into Wednesday morning before clearing works in Wednesday night.

3. Thursday/Friday are mild and pleasant, but then cooler weather takes hold by the weekend. Typical fall weekend in store; with normal high temps naturally coming down, expect temps to be in the mid 60s, especially sun-tues. Timing of weekend precip chances are uncertain,  but best odds favor scattered showers Friday night into Saturday (NOAA).

Intellicast:

4. Temps averaged about a degree above the normal mark for the month of September in Central Park. Readings leveled off after a rather torrid start. And after a dry start, precip caught up to near normal; rainfall on the 18th and 28th managed to make up for lost ground.

5. Long Range: Watching to see if a cold, stormy weather pattern can take hold in the long term. Some signs are there in the medium and long range model runs.