OCTOBER STARTS WARM, BUT TURNS COOLER BY THE WEEKEND

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

1. Persistent cloud cover and showers will be pushed out for Monday and much of Tuesday. Temps begin to warm Monday, and continue fairly warm through much of the week.

2. Storm comes out of the south, but waits to get going until Tuesday afternoon/evening. General rainfall of about a half an inch expected, with only minimal flooding into Wednesday morning before clearing works in Wednesday night.

3. Thursday/Friday are mild and pleasant, but then cooler weather takes hold by the weekend. Typical fall weekend in store; with normal high temps naturally coming down, expect temps to be in the mid 60s, especially sun-tues. Timing of weekend precip chances are uncertain,  but best odds favor scattered showers Friday night into Saturday (NOAA).

Intellicast:

4. Temps averaged about a degree above the normal mark for the month of September in Central Park. Readings leveled off after a rather torrid start. And after a dry start, precip caught up to near normal; rainfall on the 18th and 28th managed to make up for lost ground.

5. Long Range: Watching to see if a cold, stormy weather pattern can take hold in the long term. Some signs are there in the medium and long range model runs.

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement.
MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences
LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle