WEEKEND WINTER STORM SCENARIOS

A strong winter storm will begin to intensify over the southern states and track towards the area on Friday. The storm will bring copious amounts of Gulf and Atlantic moisture with it on its journey up the coast during the weekend.

Position of storm as of 10am Tuesday 1/19/16

Stubborn high pressure to the north of the storm will lock in sufficient amounts of cold air, making for most, if not all of the precipitation to be in the form of snow for the entire area. However, the aforementioned high  may be strong enough to keep the heaviest snows to our south, resulting in only moderate-sized snowfall totals.

 In many ways, the evolution of this storm resembles some of the more nefarious types of winter storms we've seen over the last 20 years on the eastern seaboard.

TIMING: The biggest impact to the region will be on Saturday, with slowly improving conditions on Sunday as the storm pulls away early in the day. Light snow should begin from south to north during late Friday evening and become heavy at times by Saturday morning.

IMPACTS: It's still uncertain which areas will receive the highest snowfall totals, but we should know by tomorrow night and especially Thursday.

Coastal flooding will be a huge problem. If the bulk of the snow misses to the south, this storm could still be remembered as one which brought tidal flooding and significant beach erosion. This storm will coincide with a full moon; expect moderate to major coastal flooding at the times of highest tides.




Winds will be very strong along the coast. Wind speeds could exceed 50mph on Saturday and Saturday night regardless of who gets the heaviest snowfall.





In short, this is a potentially disruptive and dangerous storm, but the exact snowfall amounts are still highly uncertain. The coastal flooding impacts should not be overlooked in any way. In addition, the storm will have far-reaching affects; those traveling over the weekend should consider leaving early if possible to avoid any complications.

 Stay tuned.

SCENARIO #1: Major blizzard with coastal flooding. 1-2 foot accumulations for the entire area.

SCENARIO #2: Bulk of the snow remains to the south of the immediate metro area, but significant coastal flooding occurs with strong winds. Moderate snowfall accumulations.

Accumulation ideas will be out by Thursday the latest.