Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.
Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expectedRainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch.Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends.Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added inDrizzle-constant drizzleOccasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle
Saturday, May 26, 2012
VIDEO: UPDATE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8:00 PM TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE TRI STATE AREA
The proximity of the front and clear skies early has led to very heavy showers and some severe thunderstorms over NW New Jersey. They should propagate east-southeastly and affect parts of the region through the mid-evening hours. Obviously, this is a overview "bust" since the storm threat was supposed to be religated to the northwest burbs. The threat of storms came earlier than expected here, and should re commence tomorrow afternoon, as the same front stays in our vicinity. Suffolk is not in the "watch area, but could also be affected.
Friday, May 25, 2012
BERYL ABOUT TO BE BORN OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...
A sub-tropical storm/ or bona fide tropical storm is just off the south atlantic coast. It will help to deliver much needed rain to the southeast, as their drought is severe.
Maps tomorrow as i am perplexed at the precip chances the next few days. I think i'm on the right track, but will re-examine the forecasts tomorrow.
By the way, if JB's predictions hold, we will see a dearth of activity in the Atlantic the next few months after Beryl goes bye bye.
Maps tomorrow as i am perplexed at the precip chances the next few days. I think i'm on the right track, but will re-examine the forecasts tomorrow.
By the way, if JB's predictions hold, we will see a dearth of activity in the Atlantic the next few months after Beryl goes bye bye.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
THE DROUGHT MONITOR; ONE MONTH AGO VS CURRENT OUTLOOK
it was pointed out in various circles that the drought (the mini-drought) would be dealt a death blow. It stared with the April 23rd coastal storm, and the rainfall has come in ernest since then. The majority of days this month have featured plenty of clouds and above-normal precipitation in most reporting stations. The US Drought Monitor then vs now is telling:
And more is on the way. Actually, it's in progress across parts of Queens (delaying the Mets' game):
to my error, the new "terminology" that i've put down would have been better suited for today in the city as "numerous showers," instead of incorrectly pointing out that the showers would be west of NYC during the day. The correction will be noted and in a similar situation, i'll try and remember for next time.
Sunday is looking active, as NOAA is catching on to the idea that Lee Goldberg was touting yesterday, as well as the Euro model, which has the front very close by. This front will provide the focus for what i believe will be an opportunity to get a nasty complex of thunderstorms to come through. And there could be multiple rounds. Again, Sunday's the big day for storms; Monday morning, there could be leftover showers and storms, but it should be mostly rain-free. Tuesday, we do it again with another front coming through in the afternoon.
to my error, the new "terminology" that i've put down would have been better suited for today in the city as "numerous showers," instead of incorrectly pointing out that the showers would be west of NYC during the day. The correction will be noted and in a similar situation, i'll try and remember for next time.
Sunday is looking active, as NOAA is catching on to the idea that Lee Goldberg was touting yesterday, as well as the Euro model, which has the front very close by. This front will provide the focus for what i believe will be an opportunity to get a nasty complex of thunderstorms to come through. And there could be multiple rounds. Again, Sunday's the big day for storms; Monday morning, there could be leftover showers and storms, but it should be mostly rain-free. Tuesday, we do it again with another front coming through in the afternoon.
Wednesday, May 23, 2012
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND FEATURES WARMTH, HUMIDITY AND STORMS
1. Thursday is a repeat of yesterday and today, with any numerous showers relegated to the west of NYC during the day. Temps in the upper 60s and 70s and somewhat muggy. Rainy conditions develop late Thursday (with an isolated thunderstorm) and continue into early Friday, before clearing ensues again.
2. Friday, a risk of a shower or storm is highest (again) to the west of the city. Muggy. Temps in the 70s, with 60s at night.
3. Saturday is dry and a bit less humid. However, temps come up into the 80s. Near 80 even out on the Island. Lows in the 60s. Risk of a shower only for the highest of elevations away from the city and coast.
4. Potentially active, stormy day sunday, as nearby front act as conveyor belt for numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning early Sunday into Sunday night all areas. Some heavy rain may develop Sunday as storms may encompass a wide area, and have plenty of fuel to work with. Not a washout. Temps in the mid-upper 70s with clouds more pronounced Sunday.
5. Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days, with highs climbing into the 80s. Some 90-degree readings are possible Tuesday before another front sweeps in with a risk of a shower/thunderstorm. Overall, hyped heat from previous NOAA forecasts will largely spare the area due to fronts and storms. Temps won't hit 90-degrees more than once through the next seven days.
6. New termanoligy being tried here to make sense out of the senseless "probability of precipitation." See below. Need feedback to see if this is working.
2. Friday, a risk of a shower or storm is highest (again) to the west of the city. Muggy. Temps in the 70s, with 60s at night.
3. Saturday is dry and a bit less humid. However, temps come up into the 80s. Near 80 even out on the Island. Lows in the 60s. Risk of a shower only for the highest of elevations away from the city and coast.
4. Potentially active, stormy day sunday, as nearby front act as conveyor belt for numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning early Sunday into Sunday night all areas. Some heavy rain may develop Sunday as storms may encompass a wide area, and have plenty of fuel to work with. Not a washout. Temps in the mid-upper 70s with clouds more pronounced Sunday.
5. Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days, with highs climbing into the 80s. Some 90-degree readings are possible Tuesday before another front sweeps in with a risk of a shower/thunderstorm. Overall, hyped heat from previous NOAA forecasts will largely spare the area due to fronts and storms. Temps won't hit 90-degrees more than once through the next seven days.
6. New termanoligy being tried here to make sense out of the senseless "probability of precipitation." See below. Need feedback to see if this is working.
Tuesday, May 22, 2012
CHECK OUT THE NEW FORMAT
I did some playing around tonight; the blog looks better with the spacing of things and the colors. comments are welcomed. tomorrow, i'll try and hone in on the interesting Memorial Day forecasts this weekend. Will the heat make it in here in a big way, or will clouds and storms show up late in the weekend? I think the models will come into alignment tomorrow and we'll be able to see if we can nail this baby down. As of now, i think the overall ideas from this blog were good for this week.
By the way, Lee Goldberg threw a monkey wrench in the forecast tonight, as he mentioned a chance of organized rain for thursday night into Friday. I haven't seen that any place else, but he is the General, and i am on red alert!!!
By the way, Lee Goldberg threw a monkey wrench in the forecast tonight, as he mentioned a chance of organized rain for thursday night into Friday. I haven't seen that any place else, but he is the General, and i am on red alert!!!
Monday, May 21, 2012
WATCH FOR FLOODING TOMORROW MORNING...
another area of rain is gathering off of the New Jersey coast and working its way inland. It should start to arrive within the next hour or two for NYC and points east.
Given that the numerical models did so poorly with the extent and intensity of last night/this morning's rainfall, it's a pretty fair concern at this point to assume that rainfall overnight should be persistent and occasionally heavy. So watch for some flooding on your way in tomorrow, especially those traveling from east to west from the Island.
Given that the numerical models did so poorly with the extent and intensity of last night/this morning's rainfall, it's a pretty fair concern at this point to assume that rainfall overnight should be persistent and occasionally heavy. So watch for some flooding on your way in tomorrow, especially those traveling from east to west from the Island.
FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS WEST OF THE COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
please see the video from yesterday. the idea remains the same that the heaviest rains on the whole this week (starting tomorrow) will be confined to areas west of NYC. That's not to say that we'll be rain-free, but it's the best you can do in a pattern as tricky as this.
in light of the discussion out of NOAA this afternoon, i am beginning to doubt this scenario will pan exactly as portrayed even to the city and coast; i'm also wondering when (not if) the mid-summer heat truly builds in here after Sunday for a day or longer, like i think it might.
as it is, many places picked up over an inch of rain with this morning's torrential showers and storms.
accuweather's graphic is a good representation of the rest of the week and the story explains a lot as well...
notice the green area depicts the best chances of rainfall through friday, and does not include the coastal sections. However i am skeptical because the models did a poor job of handling this mornings rains, and with the pattern not breaking down in a meaningful way, it seems to me that anyone's fair game for a surprise shower or storm most afternoons this week. Hedging my bet, i would guess that the primary area for this to take place would be north and west of town, so i went with that on the video.
By Saturday, we have to watch for an organized area of showers and storms for all locations in the afternoon.
it looks to remain humid through the week, as no real air mass change is apparent.
in situations like this, the point-and-click type forecasts are dubious and don't tell you much. Text forecasts with probability of precipitation are useless. Straight up text forecasts in this situation should just read "risk of a shower" for low probability, or "showers likely" if the need is there.
in light of the discussion out of NOAA this afternoon, i am beginning to doubt this scenario will pan exactly as portrayed even to the city and coast; i'm also wondering when (not if) the mid-summer heat truly builds in here after Sunday for a day or longer, like i think it might.
as it is, many places picked up over an inch of rain with this morning's torrential showers and storms.
accuweather's graphic is a good representation of the rest of the week and the story explains a lot as well...
notice the green area depicts the best chances of rainfall through friday, and does not include the coastal sections. However i am skeptical because the models did a poor job of handling this mornings rains, and with the pattern not breaking down in a meaningful way, it seems to me that anyone's fair game for a surprise shower or storm most afternoons this week. Hedging my bet, i would guess that the primary area for this to take place would be north and west of town, so i went with that on the video.
By Saturday, we have to watch for an organized area of showers and storms for all locations in the afternoon.
it looks to remain humid through the week, as no real air mass change is apparent.
in situations like this, the point-and-click type forecasts are dubious and don't tell you much. Text forecasts with probability of precipitation are useless. Straight up text forecasts in this situation should just read "risk of a shower" for low probability, or "showers likely" if the need is there.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
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